(KAMPALA, UGANDA) – Uganda is preparing to hold its seventh presidential election since 1996, with voting scheduled for Thursday, as long term trends from previous polls point to tightening contests and a gradual decline in the vote share of President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled the country since 1986.
The Electoral Commission has organised six presidential elections between 1996 and 2021, all of which were won by Mr Museveni. Over this period, the number of registered voters and those turning out to vote has steadily increased. However, analysis of election results shows that while Mr Museveni has consistently secured victory, his share of the total valid votes has generally declined across successive election cycles, suggesting growing opposition and increasingly competitive races.
The only notable exception to this trend was the 2011 election, when Mr Museveni increased his percentage share compared with the 2006 polls. Even so, the 2021 election recorded the narrowest margin between Mr Museveni and the combined Opposition across all six contests. In that election, he won 58.4 percent of the valid votes, while Opposition candidates collectively secured 41.6 percent, leaving a margin of 16.8 percentage points.
In 2021, Mr Museveni’s closest individual challenger was Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, widely known as Bobi Wine, who received 23 percent of the valid votes. By contrast, Mr Museveni’s strongest performance came in the first presidential election held in 1996, when he won 74.3 percent of the vote. In that contest, the combined Opposition share stood at about 37 percent, with his closest rival, Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, securing 23.6 percent.
An analysis of the six elections indicates that Mr Museveni has averaged about 64 percent of the vote. His most decisive victory was in 1996, when he secured roughly 74 percent of the 5.9 million valid votes cast. At the time, about 8.4 million Ugandans were registered to vote in an election contested by three candidates, including Mr Museveni, Democratic Party leader Paul Ssemogerere, who was backed by the Inter Party Forces Cooperation, and Muhammad Kibirige Mayanja of the Justice Forum.
In that election, about 6.1 million voters turned out. Mr Museveni won with approximately 4.4 million votes, compared with about 1.4 million votes for Dr Ssemogerere, while Mr Mayanja received fewer than 200,000 votes. The 1996 poll recorded the highest comparative turnout of registered voters across the six elections and marked the first time Ugandans voted for a president since Mr Museveni took power a decade earlier.
In the 2001 election, Mr Museveni again emerged victorious with about 5.1 million votes, representing 69.3 percent of the total votes cast. The combined Opposition received about 2.2 million votes, or 30.6 percent. Dr Kizza Besigye, his closest challenger, secured about 2.05 million votes, equivalent to 27.8 percent. Voter turnout stood at about 7.5 million out of 10.7 million registered voters.
Dr Besigye challenged Mr Museveni again in the 2006 election, this time as the candidate of the Forum for Democratic Change, following the 2005 referendum that restored multiparty democracy and ended the Movement system. In the same year, Parliament amended the Constitution to remove presidential term limits, allowing Mr Museveni to stand for additional terms.
Although Mr Museveni won the 2006 election, his margin narrowed significantly compared with 2001. He secured about 4.1 million votes, or 59.3 percent, while the combined Opposition obtained 2.8 million votes, or 40.7 percent. Dr Besigye’s individual vote count rose to about 2.5 million. The election attracted about 7.2 million voters from a register of 10.4 million.
In the 2011 polls, Mr Museveni regained some ground, winning 68.4 percent of the total 8.2 million votes cast, compared with 31.6 percent for the combined Opposition. He received about 5.4 million votes, while Opposition candidates together secured around 2.5 million. Dr Besigye, contesting for the third time, obtained about 2.06 million votes, a decline of roughly 500,000 compared with his 2006 performance. During the same period, Mr Museveni increased his vote count by about 1.4 million.
Political analysts say these shifts reflect both enduring support for Mr Museveni in parts of the country and a gradual consolidation of Opposition strength, particularly in urban areas. One analyst, Dr Sultan, said the long standing narrative associated with Mr Museveni’s role in restoring stability continues to resonate with many rural voters, although he argued that this perception no longer reflects the country’s current realities.
Opposition figures have focused their campaigns on economic pressures, governance and democratic space, while the ruling National Resistance Movement maintains that its policies and development programmes will secure it another strong mandate. Rosemary Sseninde, the NRM national director for mobilisation, said the party had intensified efforts to encourage voter participation, particularly among those who previously stayed away from polling stations.
She said the party was relying on grassroots mobilisation and pointing to government programmes such as the Parish Development Model and Emyooga, which she said have helped lift households out of poverty. She also cited improvements in infrastructure, education and health services as factors that she believes will influence voters’ choices.
Ms Sseninde said the NRM had largely implemented its manifesto commitments and expressed confidence that voters would reward the party at the ballot box.
Since 1996, Uganda’s presidential elections have featured a wide range of candidates from different regions and political backgrounds, reflecting the country’s evolving multiparty landscape. The 2026 election will again see President Museveni face several challengers, including Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu and other Opposition figures, as Ugandans head to the polls amid heightened political competition and scrutiny.
