[OPINION] – Nile Waters Dispute: Will South Sudan Be Drawn into Conflict?

Our own Nile and the Sudd Wetland could very likely be the cause of a regional war in the near future. If not within the next three years, then certainly in the years to come.

The two downstream Nile riparian states Egypt and Sudan hold fundamentally different views from the other nine Great Lakes region countries on how Nile waters should be shared fairly. In 1929, Egypt signed an agreement with the British colonial government in Sudan, granting Egypt and Sudan full usage rights over the Nile’s waters.

A follow up agreement in 1959 allocated 66% to Egypt and 22% to Sudan, leaving the remaining 12% to account for evaporation. Crucially, Ethiopia, responsible for most of the Nile’s water was excluded from both agreements. The other upstream countries were either still under colonial rule or facing internal conflicts, making them unable to participate in these negotiations.

This exclusion effectively silenced upstream states, while Egypt and Sudan entrenched their control through binding agreements that ignored the needs and rights of the rest of the basin. However, these outdated agreements are now being challenged due to rising demands and changing geopolitical dynamics.

Assertive and independent upstream nations are demanding fair access and a review of the current arrangements. The movement for equitable distribution is gaining momentum, with peaceful efforts underway to find a balanced solution for all Nile Basin countries.

The creation of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999 was a step toward fairer water use. However, Egypt and Sudan have resisted this shift, viewing it as a threat to their long held advantages. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 escalated tensions, especially among Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. These tensions could potentially draw in other nations, including South Sudan, as disputes deepen in the coming years.

Ethiopia’s control over the flow of the Blue Nile poses strategic challenges to downstream countries. Likewise, South Sudan’s Sudd Wetland if left undisturbed acts as a natural regulator of the White Nile’s flow. Egypt and Sudan, heavily dependent on Nile waters for farming and electricity, feel increasingly threatened.

As a result, the downstream states have influenced two controversial projects in South Sudan: dredging the White Nile and completing the Jonglei Canal. Both aim to drain the Sudd Wetland to speed up water flow downstream. However, in 2022 and 2023, the government of South Sudan and the East African Community wisely suspended these projects. This was a commendable and environmentally responsible decision.

The Sudd, Africa’s largest swamp and a major biodiversity hotspot, plays a vital ecological role. Environmental assessments and ecological studies have shown that draining it would destroy wildlife habitats, endanger species, alter weather patterns, and reduce rainfall.

Fishing communities who rely on the wetland would be hit hardest, potentially leading to resource-based conflict and mass displacement. With climate change and population growth already affecting water levels, any further interference could trigger a serious environmental and political crisis.

We must understand the strategic value of our natural resources and take measures to protect them. South Sudan must prioritise peace and unity, which are essential foundations for development. With internal stability, we can build infrastructure, strengthen our security forces and resist foreign pressures that seek to take advantage of our weaknesses.

Let us protect our sovereignty and safeguard the Sudd for generations to come.

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Maluk Abraham Shayor
Medical Student, University of Juba
Email: maluk.machiek@gmail.com

Maluk Abraham Shayor is a medical student at the University of Juba with a strong interest in environmental protection, regional politics and national sovereignty.