(TEHRAN) – A new military operation in Iran has begun without visible involvement from Moscow, raising fresh questions about the value of Russian security guarantees to its partners.
A Ukrainian commentator, Anna, speaking from Ukraine, said events in Iran show that Moscow’s assurances offer little protection. She argued that Syria, Venezuela and now Iran have all learned that reliance on the Kremlin does not ensure stability.
She warned that the erosion of international law, accelerated by the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s repeated violations, has led to growing instability. According to her assessment, fewer states now formally declare wars or follow established legal procedures. She described the current period as one of mounting geopolitical disorder.
Speaking as an ordinary Ukrainian, she said there is a domino effect among Russia’s allies. While this weakens Moscow’s strategic position, she cautioned that wider consequences are serious. These include rising oil prices and the weakening of the rules governing armed conflict.
She expressed solidarity with the Iranian people, while criticising the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. She said accountability under international law remains essential for global stability.
Anna argued that what some view as isolated conflicts form part of a broader global confrontation shaped by modern technology, including drones, artificial intelligence and hybrid operations. She said multiple conflicts around the world stem from what she described as unpunished aggression.
She cited Russia’s previous actions in Georgia and Ukraine, saying limited consequences encouraged further violations. In her view, this has undermined global norms and emboldened other actors.
Turning to Iran’s relationship with Moscow, she said Tehran had relied on Russian air defence systems and military cooperation. She suggested Iranian leaders expected support from the Kremlin but received none. She linked this to earlier developments in Syria and Venezuela, where governments allied to Moscow faced serious challenges.
She also referred to former Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in 2014, describing Moscow as a destination for deposed leaders aligned with the Kremlin.
According to her assessment, Russia lacks the resources to sustain its partners. She cited financial pressures, strain on the defence sector and reported damage to energy infrastructure. She said this weakens Moscow’s ability to project power or provide assistance abroad.
However, she warned that a prolonged conflict in Iran could deepen global risks. Extended warfare could drive further oil market volatility and accelerate the development of advanced military technologies. She noted that major wars in the twentieth century led to rapid weapons innovation, including nuclear arms.
She said emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence add new dangers if used irresponsibly. In her view, preventing the spread of conflict and enforcing international law are essential to reduce these risks.
Anna criticised the use of the term special military operation, saying conflicts should be formally declared and governed by international law. She argued that bypassing legal frameworks weakens global order and blurs distinctions between states that respect rules and those that do not.
She compared international law to domestic policing, saying global institutions are necessary to maintain order, even if imperfect. She said earlier failures to impose strong consequences after Russian actions have contributed to the current instability.
Despite concerns, she expressed hope that authoritarian regimes would weaken and that people in affected countries would gain greater control over their futures. She concluded that global security remains fragile after years of appeasement and inconsistent enforcement of international norms.
putin loses his geopolitical influence: Iran, Syria, Venezuela. russian security guarantees cannot protect any of his dictator friends.
