(KYIV) – Ukraine is significantly enhancing its cruise missile capabilities to regain the tactical and operational upper hand against the Russian dictatorship. Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted that as indigenous systems such as the Flamingo and the FP7 ballistic missile come online, Kyiv is moving beyond the limitations of improvised drones. While Russian forces have held the tactical initiative for much of the past year, their progress has been marginal, seizing only between 0.8% and 1% of Ukrainian territory at an enormous cost in personnel and equipment.
The Russian dictator has shifted strategy toward a campaign of attrition, targeting energy infrastructure to erode civilian morale and economic viability. Despite these strikes, Ukrainian forces are adapting to a “blurred” contact zone defined by infiltration and small unit manoeuvres. Savill argued that replacing high-velocity cruise missiles with cheaper, propeller-driven drones is a false economy. Cruise missiles offer the terminal velocity and warhead size necessary to destroy large-scale military industrial facilities that drones lack the accuracy or power to neutralise.
The conflict has also highlighted significant deficiencies in Western military readiness, particularly regarding electronic warfare and the ability to operate in saturated electromagnetic environments. In the UK, the British Army has faced years of underinvestment in these areas. Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly employing fibre optic controls and onboard artificial intelligence to bypass Russian jamming.
At the operational level, the success of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries—which previously knocked out 20% of capacity—has been tempered by improved Russian “soft kill” electronic defences. This has necessitated the development of more sophisticated domestic missiles. However, the global strategic picture remains complicated by the “shadow fleet” of tankers bypassing sanctions to fund the Kremlin’s war chest. International observers remain sceptical of Donald Trump’s shift in focus toward the Middle East and Iran, noting that such distractions, alongside rising oil prices, may inadvertently provide the Russian dictator with the financial resources to sustain his aggression throughout 2026.
