(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to deliver victory for the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, despite renewed claims from Moscow that there will be no compromise on Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian Member of Parliament Yulia Sirko said Russia’s war difficulties will continue into 2026 as Moscow struggles with financial pressures, low energy prices and limited territorial gains.
Following a five hour meeting in Moscow between US envoy Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner and Putin, the Kremlin again ruled out any concessions on the territory it occupies. Sirko, a member of the pro European opposition party Holos, said Ukraine was not surprised by the outcome. She stated that Russia has shown no willingness to stop its aggression, pointing to Putin approving Russia’s most costly military spending plan in decades for 2026.
According to Sirko, 40 percent of Russia’s national spending will go to the military sector in 2026, an indication that the Kremlin continues to rely on the war despite the mounting human and economic cost.
She emphasised that Russia’s demands include recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia, including Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. Sirko said such demands are impossible to accept either politically or legally, and would amount to the first major forced change of European borders since the Second World War. She noted that neither Ukraine nor its international partners would recognise such territorial claims.
In Kyiv, living conditions remain challenging due to regular electricity shortages which at times last up to 16 to 18 hours per day. However, repairs are ongoing to restore energy infrastructure damaged by Russian strikes.
Sirko highlighted that Russia has only seized around 0.5 percent more Ukrainian territory since the start of the full scale invasion in 2022, despite extremely high casualties. She said Moscow has spent hundreds of billions of dollars, and lost over a million soldiers according to Ukrainian estimates, for what she described as a minimal territorial gain.
| Key War Indicators (Ukrainian Estimates) | Figures |
|---|---|
| New territory seized since 2022 | Approx. 0.5 percent of Ukraine |
| Russian troop deaths | Over 1 million |
| Share of Russia’s 2026 spending on military | About 40 percent |
Sirko said low global oil and gas prices also pose a growing challenge for Russia, contributing to a significant budget deficit. She argued that these pressures will worsen in 2026.
Negotiators from the United States have sought avenues for a possible peace settlement, but European leaders have raised concerns that leaked US proposals could tilt too far in favour of Russia’s demands. European governments have instead advanced a separate plan aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s position.
Putin dismissed Europe’s proposals as unacceptable and warned that Europe would face swift defeat if it went to war with Russia. Ukraine and its allies continue to reject Moscow’s threats.
President Trump has repeatedly said he aims to end the war, including through direct talks with Putin. However, previous meetings in Alaska and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have produced no breakthrough. Trump acknowledged in Washington this week that solving the conflict remains difficult.
On the battlefield, Russia’s defence ministry recently claimed control over the eastern city of Pokrovsk, although Ukraine reported its forces still control parts of the area. Russia now occupies more than 19 percent of Ukrainian land, a one percentage point increase in two years despite continuing heavy losses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking in Dublin, said Ukraine must remain strong at the negotiating table and on the front line. NATO and European officials echoed that message, stating that continued Western military assistance and economic sanctions remain essential to maintaining pressure on Russia.
