(DONETSK, UKRAINE) – Russian dictator Vladimir Putin faces growing pressure over his political and personal survival as Moscow’s prolonged attempt to seize full control of Donetsk region continues to stall, according to a senior foreign policy analyst.
As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre in London and a former NATO representative in Moscow, said the Kremlin leader’s authority is now closely tied to the outcome of the conflict.
“He’s got to worry about his survival and his physical survival even,” Lough said. “This war that he’s unleashed in Ukraine is so central to his ultimate survival and the legacy he wishes to leave that he has to win. And the problem is that he can’t win.”
Russian forces continue to make incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, including in Donetsk region, but progress remains slow and costly. Lough said that in 2025 Russian forces captured roughly 1 per cent of Ukrainian territory while suffering about 400,000 casualties. He added that the Russian army has failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough despite maintaining numerical superiority.
State media in Russia regularly reports the capture of small villages, presenting advances as evidence of strategic momentum. Lough said that narrative has persisted for more than a year without delivering a conclusive result on the battlefield.
Ukraine, despite limited resources, continues to resist effectively. European governments are maintaining military and financial assistance, which Lough said provides “enough in the tank” for Kyiv to continue fighting, even if support falls short of what is required for a major counteroffensive.
Russia has intensified strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Nearly 13,000 missiles have reportedly been launched at energy targets over the past two years. In recent weeks, up to 6,000 apartment blocks in Kyiv were left without electricity and heating following attacks on power facilities. Lough warned that repeated strikes risk damaging Ukraine’s broader economy, with at least one major industrial exporter east of Kyiv suspending production and furloughing workers due to power shortages.
Despite sanctions, the Russian economy has adapted by redirecting trade towards Asia, particularly China. Military production has expanded, offsetting declines in civilian sectors such as car manufacturing and aircraft construction. Lough described the war as limited in scale compared with historical conflicts, noting that around 700,000 Russian troops are currently deployed in Ukraine.
Casualty estimates suggest Russia may have suffered between 1 million and 1.2 million total casualties since 2022, including 350,000 to 400,000 fatalities. However, Lough said the Kremlin appears prepared to sustain further losses. Putin has so far avoided a new large scale mobilisation, aware of the public backlash that followed the partial call up in 2022, when up to one million Russians left the country.
Energy exports remain central to Russia’s economic resilience. China and India continue to purchase Russian crude oil, limiting the impact of Western sanctions. Lough said Western governments have avoided removing Russian oil entirely from global markets due to concerns over inflation and price spikes.
Politically, he said uncertainty surrounds renewed diplomatic efforts led by US President Donald Trump. Talks have begun, but Lough described them as largely performative, arguing neither side is ready to agree to a settlement. He added that any reduction in US intelligence support would pose short term challenges for Ukraine.
Within Russia, Ukrainian strikes on air bases, oil refineries and infrastructure in regions such as Belgorod and Bryansk have increased domestic awareness of the war. More Russian families are directly affected by casualties, raising questions about long term sustainability.
Lough concluded that while Putin retains certain advantages, he remains far from achieving his stated objective of extinguishing Ukraine’s independence. “He keeps suggesting that Russia has a strategic initiative on the front,” he said, but after more than a year of similar claims, “it’s not happening.”
