(NAIROBI, KENYA) – In the history of Kenyan politics, three key regions, Mount Kenya, the Lake region, and the Rift Valley have consistently shaped the outcome of general elections, particularly in the race for the presidency. Alignments among leaders from these areas often determine the balance of power, the direction of national influence, and election strategies that change every five years.
From the era of traditional parties such as KANU and FORD, to more recent coalitions like Jubilee, NASA and Kenya Kwanza, the lesson has remained the same: anyone aiming for the presidency must find a way to bring Mount Kenya, the Lake region, and the Rift Valley into their camp at the right moment.
In 2022, Mount Kenya and the Rift Valley joined forces under the Kenya Kwanza coalition, handing William Ruto the presidency. His running mate, Rigathi Gachagua, was appointed Deputy President, a move seen as a symbol of the pact between the two regions.
However, the political situation has since shifted. Following open disagreements between President Ruto and his deputy Gachagua, Mount Kenya’s influence within government has weakened. Gachagua has continued to push for what he calls “regional interests” for Mount Kenya, using political platforms at home and abroad to openly criticise his former ally and current boss.
The phrase “Wantam”—a popular reference to the idea of giving Ruto only one term—has increasingly gained traction in Mount Kenya. This suggests that the region may abandon its support for him before the 2027 elections, signalling uncertainty rather than goodwill.
The relationship between Mount Kenya and the Lake region has historically been unpredictable. In 2018, former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga made history through the famous “Handshake,” which brought the two regions together while sidelining Ruto. That partnership gave rise to the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which sought to restructure government but was struck down by the courts. Despite its failure, it showed that an alliance between Mount Kenya and the Lake region could reshape national politics.
After his fallout with Gachagua, Ruto turned to the Lake region in an effort to strengthen his ties with Raila Odinga, much like Kenyatta had done earlier. In 2022, despite Uhuru backing Raila, Mount Kenya ultimately shifted its support to Ruto. But current developments indicate growing dissatisfaction in the region. Raila, now aligned with Ruto, appears to be regaining influence in the Lake region through his role in government-linked arrangements.
The Rift Valley, meanwhile, has remained Ruto’s most solid base since his Jubilee alliance with Kenyatta. Analysts note that this stronghold continues to offer him a reliable political foundation, even if Mount Kenya turns away.
Political analyst Kefa Oriae says the Rift Valley carries significant weight in electoral calculations. He explains that as long as Ruto controls the Rift Valley, and secures some level of backing from the Lake region or the Coast, his political chances remain strong even without Mount Kenya.
“Kenyan politics is no longer entirely dependent on ethnic blocs,” Oriae observes. “Ruto appears to be adjusting his approach by focusing on regions, women, and the youth. Women’s enterprise funds and youth loans have been widely distributed, and the government is working at grassroots level to strengthen its ties with key constituencies.”
According to Oriae, this is a deliberate strategy to reduce ethnic dependency and create a broader appeal beyond traditional strongholds. “The President is building support in former Raila strongholds in Nyanza, Western Kenya and to a large extent at the Coast. If he can win over the Gen Z voters who opposed him, along with women who make up more than half of the electorate, he will have significantly changed the political game.”
He further stresses that the alliance between the Lake region and the Rift Valley should not be underestimated. It has the potential to change national politics, as seen in the disputed 2007 election, when their unity almost unseated President Mwai Kibaki, triggering one of the most violent episodes in Kenya’s history.
