(OROL, RUSSIA) – Ukraine has intensified its precision strikes across Russia’s key infrastructure, targeting oil refineries, petrochemical plants, export ports, and energy facilities that underpin the Kremlin’s military operations. These operations reveal mounting vulnerabilities within Russia’s economy as export revenues decline and domestic unrest grows.
Overnight, Ukrainian missiles hit a thermal power plant in the city of Orol, causing significant damage. Ukrainian forces also struck refineries and chemical plants in Budanovk, in the Stavropol region, and the Stavolan gas processing plant in southern Russia. Local residents filmed Russian air defence systems firing indiscriminately in residential areas.
The Russian economy faces deepening strains. The Russian government is forcing commercial banks to purchase government bonds to prop up its collapsing finances. These bonds, widely considered worthless, are being used to fund military operations, including weapons imports from North Korea. Analysts warn that this creates a spiralling debt crisis with potentially long-term consequences for the Russian financial system.
The Russian oil market is also under severe pressure. Russian crude is reportedly trading at around $43 per barrel, roughly $20 below Brent crude, while an estimated 380 million barrels remain unsold at sea. Daily storage costs for tankers exceed $100,000, highlighting the scale of the oversupply crisis. Extraction costs are rising, with harder-to-reach reserves accounting for 26% of production in 2024, up from 2% in 2005. Without significant foreign investment or technology, costs are projected to rise further.
Domestically, Russia’s public infrastructure continues to deteriorate. In Novosibirsk, a major water main burst, leaving thousands without access to water. The Kousbos coal-producing region faces widespread bankruptcy, with wage arrears exceeding 500 million rubles ($6.7 million) as mines shut down and coal stockpiles accumulate. Public support for the military has fallen to 30%, down from 52% two years ago, reflecting growing disillusionment with the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is intensifying domestic surveillance and repression. Citizens are now required to install FSB spyware on personal devices. Internet access may be cut in 2026 ahead of elections, while opposition figures, including actress Jana Troyanova, face severe legal action for speaking against the war. Meanwhile, investigative journalists have exposed the histories and personal networks of Russia’s ruling elite, revealing long hidden abuses and corruption.
Internationally, Russian influence is under challenge. Mass protests continue in Georgia against Russian backed authorities, while Romania and Moldova are moving to nationalise Russian oil assets in their territories.
