(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Retired United States Army General Ben Hodges has said Russia is not winning the war in Ukraine, despite some public commentary suggesting Ukraine is struggling. Speaking in an online interview, the former commander of US Army Europe argued that the Kremlin’s gains remain minimal considering the high cost in lives and material over nearly two years of offensive action around Pokrovsk and other areas of the eastern front.
General Hodges stated that Ukraine must continue to hold firm to its core negotiation principles. These include no formal surrender of occupied territories, no restrictions on the size or capabilities of Ukraine’s armed forces, and no form of legal amnesty for Russian commanders or officials responsible for war crimes. He noted that trust in any agreement with the Kremlin is low because Russia has repeatedly violated previous commitments.
He said Ukraine’s civilian population continues to endure immense hardship and that national leaders must make difficult decisions. However, he stressed that western governments should not pressure Kyiv into what he described as a bad deal simply to halt fighting temporarily. According to him, Russia has a poor record of respecting borders or peace agreements unless compelled to do so.
General Hodges said Russia’s claims of progress do not reflect the reality on the ground. He pointed to the slow movement from Avdiivka to the outskirts of Pokrovsk as an example. He said Russian troops have advanced only about 35 to 40 kilometres after suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties over many months.
Estimated Timeline and Russian Territorial Gains
| Location | Approximate distance gained | Estimated time taken | Stated Russian losses* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avdiivka to Pokrovsk | 35 to 40 km | Nearly 2 years | Hundreds of thousands casualties |
*Casualty figures from Ukrainian and western assessments
He argued there is no evidence that Russia has the capacity to occupy or control more territory or to advance significantly deeper into Ukraine. He also stated that Ukraine has demonstrated operational successes by weakening the Black Sea Fleet and striking fuel and energy infrastructure inside Russia, which he said could soon affect Russia’s ability to finance the war.
Responding to suggestions by some analysts that Ukraine is losing, General Hodges insisted that Russia has not achieved its strategic goals after more than 11 years of aggression. Ukraine continues to deny Russia full control of its skies and remains firm in its defence of major cities.
He criticised both United States and European policy approaches, saying they have been unclear and insufficient at times. He argued that political hesitation in western capitals has restricted the timely delivery of ammunition, drones, and weapons Ukraine urgently needs on the front line. He described this as a failure of western political will.
General Hodges also expressed concern about United States leader Donald Trump’s past efforts to block American assistance to Ukraine and said this behaviour risks damaging trust among international defence partners. He said business interests and private negotiations involving Russian businesses and individuals close to Mr Trump raise questions about foreign influence. He described the situation as having “an unpleasant commercial feel”.
He added that the war has already damaged Russia’s defence export market, with potential customers witnessing repeated failures of Russian weapons systems. By contrast, he said Ukraine could become the centre of Europe’s future defence technology and production, as the country is currently manufacturing a significant share of the equipment it uses.
General Hodges believes a stable and durable peace is only possible if Ukraine becomes strong enough to deter any future Russian attack, potentially similar to Israel’s defence posture. He said Ukraine must have the capacity to defend itself independently, including intelligence systems that are not reliant solely on the United States. He also said reconstruction must allow displaced Ukrainians to return and help rebuild society and the armed forces.
He concluded that unless Russia fully withdraws its forces to its own recognised borders and is forced to honour agreements, any ceasefire will only be temporary and will risk further aggression.
