(WASHINGTON, DC) – Former United States National Security Adviser John Bolton has warned that easing sanctions on Russian oil could strengthen the finances of Vladimir Putin and undermine efforts to support Ukraine during the war.
Bolton made the remarks during an interview with Ukrainian television host Maxym Krapivnyy, discussing the geopolitical consequences of rising global oil prices and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
He criticised the decision by Donald Trump to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil transported by tanker fleets, describing the move as a serious policy mistake.
Bolton said the global rise in oil prices caused by the war involving Iran was already benefiting Russia regardless of sanctions enforcement.
According to Bolton, Moscow has been able to continue exporting oil through smuggling networks or by shipping crude to countries such as China in violation of Western restrictions.
“If sanctions are lifted entirely, Russia can flood the market with oil using its so called ghost fleet of tankers and significantly increase revenue,” Bolton said.
He cited estimates published by the Financial Times suggesting Russia could gain around 150 million US dollars per day in additional oil revenue.
Bolton warned that such income would strengthen Moscow’s ability to continue financing the war against Ukraine.
He also expressed concern that the temporary nature of the sanctions relief could become permanent if the US administration fails to reimpose restrictions after the stated thirty day period.
Bolton said the decision was particularly troubling because Russia is currently providing intelligence support to Iran, including assistance that could help target American troops in the region.
“For that reason alone it is difficult to understand why the United States would provide any economic benefit to Moscow,” he said.
The former adviser also warned that the United States faces growing pressure on its military resources.
American weapons stockpiles are being used simultaneously in the war supporting Ukraine against Russia, in operations linked to the Iran conflict and as part of deterrence efforts in the Indo Pacific region.
Bolton acknowledged that these pressures reflect earlier policy failures to expand defence stockpiles, adding that rebuilding arsenals will take time.
He also criticised what he described as inconsistent strategic decision making in Washington.
During the interview Bolton discussed recent comments by the Russian dictator suggesting that turmoil in the Middle East could trigger a new global energy crisis and open the door for Russia to resume energy cooperation with Europe.
Bolton said the Kremlin is clearly trying to use instability in global markets to restore its position in the European energy sector that existed before Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
He added that Moscow may find political support within parts of the European Union for such a move.
In Bolton’s view, the temporary easing of sanctions by the United States could strengthen arguments within Europe for relaxing restrictions on Russian energy.
He also warned that global oil supply disruptions may push Russia and China into even closer economic cooperation.
China already imports large volumes of energy from the Middle East and rising prices could encourage Beijing to rely more heavily on Russian supplies.
Bolton said the Kremlin appears convinced that a prolonged war of attrition against Ukraine will eventually work in its favour.
He noted reports that Russian leadership believes Ukrainian forces may weaken during the coming months. However Bolton said he does not share that assessment and expressed hope that Ukrainian military planners also reject that view.
The Kremlin has also signalled that there is no strict timeline for ending the war despite ongoing diplomatic contacts.
Bolton said Moscow’s strategy mirrors a well known revolutionary tactic described during the Chinese civil war as “fight talk talk fight”. In that approach negotiations are used while continuing military operations.
He also commented on recent statements by Dmitry Peskov, who said earlier agreements reached in Istanbul in 2022 are no longer relevant to current negotiations.
Bolton said such comments are unlikely to have been made without approval from the Russian dictator and may signal a shift toward a harder negotiating position.
He suggested Moscow may believe Trump faces political pressure at home, particularly if rising fuel prices increase domestic criticism ahead of US midterm elections.
According to Bolton the Kremlin could attempt to use this perceived leverage to demand concessions from Ukraine during negotiations.
These demands could include new ceasefire lines, restrictions on military deployments or broader limits on the role of NATO in the conflict.
Bolton said it is unlikely that Ukraine or its allies would accept such proposals.
He also rejected suggestions that the Kremlin might adopt a more constructive negotiating approach.
“In negotiations with Russia what matters is not what they say but what they do,” Bolton said.
He added that Russia has continued the same strategy throughout the war and predicted that serious negotiations will only begin when Russian forces are forced into retreat.
Bolton also discussed Russia’s capacity to sustain a prolonged war.
He argued that Moscow continues to benefit from support provided by China and North Korea, including financial assistance and other forms of cooperation that help bypass sanctions.
China’s financial system may help move Russian funds through global markets while North Korea has provided additional forms of support.
Bolton said the absence of democratic checks and balances inside Russia allows the Kremlin to maintain strong internal control while continuing its propaganda campaign portraying the war as a defensive struggle against NATO.
He also noted that rising oil revenues linked to the Iran crisis could strengthen Russia’s economic ability to sustain military operations.
Some analysts believe the continuation of the war itself helps the Russian dictator remain in power domestically.
Bolton said this argument may be uncomfortable but could reflect the political reality inside Russia.
The interview also addressed the upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Bolton said reports suggest the US administration has not prepared a clear agenda for the summit.
He added that previous ambitions to negotiate what Trump once described as the world’s largest trade deal appear unlikely to be achieved in the near term.
Instead Bolton suggested the conflict involving Iran and its impact on global oil markets may dominate the discussions.
China is the largest buyer of Gulf oil and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could significantly affect Chinese industry.
Bolton said Beijing may increase energy imports from Russia but is unlikely to rely on a single supplier.
Finally Bolton highlighted Ukraine’s growing role as a contributor to Western military knowledge.
Ukraine has gained extensive battlefield experience in drone warfare and counter drone technology during its defence against Russia.
Bolton said Ukraine had previously offered to share some of this expertise with the United States before the war involving Iran but the proposal was initially declined.
He said Washington is now showing interest in these capabilities.
According to Bolton, Ukraine’s technological innovation and combat experience could strengthen both its own position and its future integration with NATO security structures.
