(ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, UKRAINE) – Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a limited ceasefire in part of the Zaporizhzhia region following mediation by the International Atomic Energy Agency. T
he pause in fighting is intended to allow Ukrainian engineers to carry out urgent repairs on a damaged external power line supplying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which remains under Russian occupation. The IAEA has described the work as essential for maintaining stable and safe operations at the facility.
The 330 kilovolt backup power line was damaged and disconnected by military activity on January 2. This line is vital for supplying electricity to the plant from outside sources. Since the damage, the facility has been relying on a single 750 kilovolt main power line, increasing operational risk. Ukrainian crews began the repair work after two weeks of coordination with Russian forces under IAEA oversight.
The ceasefire has raised questions about the timing of Ukraine’s recent reduction in strikes on Russian oil refineries, which largely paused after January 1. While Ukrainian officials have not linked the two developments, the halt coincided with negotiations over access to the damaged power line.
At the same time, Ukraine has continued to strike other military and energy related targets inside Russia, including electrical substations in the Moscow and Krasnodar regions, causing temporary power outages affecting tens of thousands of people. Similar attacks have also been reported in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Ukrainian forces have also targeted Russian military infrastructure. Satellite imagery has confirmed significant damage to a drone manufacturing facility in Taganrog, west of Rostov on Don. Several buildings at the site were destroyed or badly damaged, marking one of the more substantial confirmed strikes on Russia’s defence industrial base in recent weeks.
Beyond the battlefield, Russia’s financial position has continued to deteriorate. Preliminary data for calendar year 2025 shows customs revenues falling by about 20 percent compared with the previous year, reaching their lowest level since 2020. These revenues include taxes on imports and exports and their decline has widened Russia’s budget shortfall.
China has further added to Russia’s economic pressure by halting electricity imports from the Russian Far East from January 1. Chinese authorities have indicated that domestic electricity production, including from solar and wind sources, is now cheaper than imported Russian power, making further purchases unnecessary.
Russia’s oil and gas income has also fallen sharply. Revenue from the sector dropped by around 24 percent in 2025 to 8.4 trillion rubles, equivalent to approximately 92 billion US dollars at current exchange rates. This represents a fall in total revenue rather than profit and has been described by analysts as a serious blow to the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war.
As a result, the Russian finance ministry has announced plans to sell foreign currency and gold from the National Wealth Fund at a record pace. Between mid January and early February, daily sales are expected to total about 12.8 billion rubles, roughly 140 million US dollars, making it the largest such operation since the Covid 19 period.
Official Russian figures also show a decline in military recruitment. Around 422,000 people signed contracts with the armed forces in 2025, a drop of about 6 percent from the previous year. Reports suggest some regional authorities have reduced enlistment bonuses due to budget constraints, while public awareness of heavy casualties has also affected willingness to enlist.
On the battlefield, fighting has continued with limited territorial change. Ukrainian units reported repelling failed Russian assaults north of Kharkiv, with heavy losses inflicted on attacking forces. Severe winter conditions have slowed operations on both sides, with frozen ground easing movement but extreme cold increasing the risk of frostbite and hypothermia.
Accounts from Russian soldiers have highlighted persistent equipment shortages. Videos circulating online show some troops improvising personal protection due to a lack of standard body armour, reflecting broader logistical problems within Russian units.
In Moscow, the death of a former senior official under unclear circumstances has added to a growing list of prominent figures who have died since the start of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.
In the North Caucasus, Adam Kadyrov, the teenage son of Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov, was reported to be in critical condition following a serious road accident in Grozny. The incident has drawn attention due to ongoing efforts by the Kremlin to position him as a future regional leader despite his young age.
Inside Ukraine, Russian missile and drone strikes have caused extensive damage to the national power grid. Ukrainian officials say every major power plant has been damaged in recent months, leaving cities running on emergency generators and reduced street lighting. Humanitarian organisations, including World Central Kitchen, have been providing hot meals in affected areas as temperatures fall well below zero.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that delays in the delivery of air defence missiles had left some systems temporarily without ammunition, though new supplies have since arrived. He emphasised that systems such as Patriot, IRIS T and NASAMS are critical for intercepting ballistic missiles aimed at energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the broader political environment has become more volatile. United States President Donald Trump has drawn international criticism after meeting Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado at the White House and accepting a Nobel Peace Prize medal she had previously been awarded. The Nobel Foundation later stated that prizes cannot be transferred, even symbolically.
Trump has also approved a new oil related arrangement involving Venezuela that benefits a company linked to major political donors, a move critics say does little to address the country’s humanitarian crisis. At the same time, his renewed push to assert control over Greenland has triggered a strong response from European allies.
NATO countries, including Denmark, have deployed small numbers of troops to Greenland in a symbolic show of support after Trump suggested the United States might seek to take control of the island. Washington has since threatened tariffs of up to 25 percent on several European countries. European Union leaders have warned they will not accept what they describe as economic blackmail and have begun coordinating a joint response.
Russia has publicly welcomed the dispute, with senior figures claiming it signals the weakening of NATO unity. Tariff data shows that while European countries face new US trade barriers, Russia currently does not, reinforcing perceptions in Europe of a more conciliatory US approach towards Moscow under Trump.
Despite these tensions, European support for Ukraine has continued. France has stepped in as a major intelligence provider, Finland has fast tracked a 98 million euro defence package, equivalent to about 107 million US dollars, Italy has supplied industrial boilers worth around 1.8 million euros or 2 million US dollars, Britain has committed 24 million pounds, about 30 million US dollars, for energy repairs, and Germany has pledged 60 million euros, roughly 65 million US dollars, to support heating for frontline communities.
