(KYIV) – Russia does not have the manpower needed to launch a new large scale offensive in Ukraine in the fifth year of the war, according to former British Major General Chip Chapman.
Chapman said Russia’s recruitment efforts are sufficient only to replace losses and maintain existing forces, not to create the strategic reserve required for a major new operation. In 2025, Moscow recruited about 409,000 personnel, a figure officials aim to repeat in 2026, but this merely fills gaps in units already deployed.
He said Russia’s campaign has become the longest sustained conflict fought by the country since the seventeenth century, with only the First and Second World Wars proving more costly in modern Russian and Soviet history. The ratio of losses to territorial gains remains high, while progress on the battlefield has been slow.
Chapman said this pattern is not sustainable over time. Without surplus forces, Russia lacks the ability to launch a fresh offensive at scale and must instead continue grinding operations along existing fronts.
The assessment comes as Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities continue despite public statements by former US president Donald Trump calling for pauses in fighting. Ukraine has reported some of the heaviest missile and drone strikes of the winter, including attacks on energy and transport infrastructure during extreme cold.
Chapman questioned whether Moscow is testing the limits of Western responses, particularly from Washington. He said uncertainty over future US policy has complicated efforts to apply sustained pressure on the Russian dictator to alter course.
He warned that discussions about ceasefires or territorial concessions miss the central issue of Ukrainian sovereignty. Any settlement, he said, would require firm security guarantees, built around Ukraine’s armed forces, allied support and credible external enforcement.
Chapman said Russia’s leadership remains willing to absorb high casualties, aided by heavy internal repression, tight control of information and the absence of organised dissent. While the regime appears secure for now, he said economic strain and continued losses could expose deeper fragilities over time.
