(KYIV) – Ukrainian long range strikes against southern regions of the Russian Federation have intensified sharply through 2025 and into early 2026, transforming areas once portrayed by Moscow as secure rear zones into active theatres of conflict. What had previously been framed by Russian officials as distant and manageable disruptions has developed into a sustained campaign involving drones, missiles and naval systems operating far beyond the frontline.
For much of the war, regional authorities in southern Russia regularly assured residents that the conflict would not reach them. Temporary airport closures and occasional air defence activity were presented as controlled incidents. That narrative has largely collapsed. Ukrainian forces are now striking oil refineries, fuel depots, ports, air defence sites and urban areas across multiple regions, demonstrating a shift in both scale and strategic intent.
The change lies not only in the frequency of attacks but in their underlying logic. Oil infrastructure has burned for days, ports have been shut down, air defence systems have vanished from satellite imagery and residential buildings have suffered damage. Compensation to civilians has often been delayed or not delivered at all. These strikes are no longer symbolic but form part of a deliberate effort to increase the economic, military and political cost of continuing the war for Russia.
Since the start of the full scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has steadily expanded drone operations inside Russian territory, with a particular focus on energy infrastructure that underpins the Russian war effort. The North Caucasus has emerged as a frequent target due to its role in supplying fuel, equipment and personnel to Russian forces. In December 2025, Ukrainian forces carried out a large overnight attack on Maykop, the capital of the Republic of Adygea, where a military airfield supports refuelling and missile launches. Residents reported explosions near the facility, while local footage showed air defence activity.
Ukrainian strikes in the North Caucasus continued into January 2026. On January 18, Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed that 21 Ukrainian drones had been intercepted across five regions in the North Caucasus and southern federal districts. In response, Russian authorities moved to restrict public information. A decree issued in August 2025 banned the filming of aerial attacks, their aftermath and air defence operations, highlighting Moscow’s concern over public visibility of damage.
The North Caucasus holds strategic importance for Russia due to its access to the Azov, Black and Caspian seas, its energy reserves in Dagestan and Chechnya, and its ability to supply manpower to the armed forces. Although these republics possess formal political autonomy, real authority remains tightly controlled from Moscow. As the war continues, pressure on local infrastructure and populations in the region is steadily increasing.
Throughout 2025, Ukrainian operations evolved from sporadic drone strikes into a layered system combining aerial drones, missiles, naval drones and underwater platforms. Initial disruptions focused on aviation, with repeated airport closures in Grozny, Vladikavkaz and Magas. In southern regions such as Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai and Volgograd Oblast, attacks caused fires, casualties and long term infrastructure damage.
One of the most notable developments has been the systematic targeting of oil facilities. Fuel depots, refineries and export terminals linked to Russia’s war economy have been hit repeatedly. By late autumn, Ukrainian strikes expanded east and south, temporarily halting production at oil facilities in Volgograd. In December, a strike on infrastructure in Grozny prompted a public response from Chechen authorities, even as federal officials reinforced security coordination.
At sea, Ukrainian naval drones increasingly targeted vessels associated with Russia’s shadow fleet in the Black Sea and near Turkish waters. In December, a tanker in Rostov port was struck under circumstances suggesting missile involvement. Ukraine has also claimed damage to a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk using underwater drones, an incident partially acknowledged by Moscow and supported by satellite imagery showing explosions near the submarine berth.
Military analysts say these operations are designed to degrade Russian air defences, disrupt energy exports and force Moscow to divert resources toward repairs, compensation and internal security. The cumulative effect has been to increase the cost of the war across multiple sectors.
