(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russia plans to recruit another 409,000 military personnel in 2026. Against this background, the Commander in Chief reported on an operational meeting held regarding the state of engineering equipment for defensive lines.
In 2026, Russia plans to recruit another 409,000 military personnel, Syrskyi reported, noting that this means one thing, which is that the enemy is not abandoning its intentions and continues to prepare for further aggression against Ukraine. With the improvement of weather conditions, we see an increase in enemy activity at the front, Syrskyi reported.
Russia tries to recruit over 400,000 military personnel every year, but current losses already exceed these figures, which casts severe doubt on its ability to conduct large scale offensive operations. At the same time, the Kremlin, operating under the Russian dictator, may resort to a new wave of covert mobilisation. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military political observer for the Information Resistance group, stated this in an interview with UNN. According to the expert, Russia’s stated plans to recruit over 400,000 military personnel are nothing new or extraordinary. This level of personnel replenishment has been observed for several years in a row. He explains that this is rather an attempt to maintain a balance of losses, not preparation for a large scale offensive. This is a fairly standard indicator, Kovalenko noted, adding that starting from 2023 to 2024, Russia recruits over 400,000 personnel annually, which is enough to compensate for losses during the year.
At the same time, these figures do not take into account other sources of army replenishment. These 400,000 are only about voluntary mobilisation through contracts, the expert explained, adding that they do not take into account the recruitment of mercenaries from other countries or possible changes in legislation. Foreign mercenaries, particularly from Africa and Asia, as well as military personnel from North Korea, are becoming a separate source of replenishment for the Russian army. According to Kovalenko, this trend will only intensify. We see the active use of mercenaries, particularly from African countries, as well as North Korean military personnel, who partially compensate for losses, especially in border areas, he noted. In 2026, their share may significantly increase. This figure could reach up to 10 per cent of the total number, which is approximately 30,000 or more mercenaries, the expert added.
The key problem for Russia is not only the number of losses, but their structure. According to the expert, currently most losses are irreversible. This is an atypical situation even for large scale wars. Currently, 60 to 65 per cent of Russian losses are 200s, meaning irreversible losses, whereas previously this figure was at the level of 20 to 25 per cent, Kovalenko explained. He emphasizes that this is an unprecedented situation. This is a unique case in the history of wars, when the number of killed exceeds the number of wounded, the expert emphasized, pointing out that usually it is the other way around as there are always more wounded. This means that Russia cannot compensate for losses by returning the wounded to service.
At first glance, an annual recruitment of 400,000 may seem sufficient, however, the real situation is starkly different. The high level of irreversible losses and the intensity of fighting change the balance. At first glance, this looks like compensation for losses, but given the current structure of losses, these figures no longer work, Kovalenko noted. He cited an example of massive losses during active hostilities. In the first 48 hours of the active phase of the new offensive, which is currently underway, Russia lost over 4,000 military personnel, which are very high figures, the expert said. If Ukraine reaches a stable level of destruction of the occupiers, the situation will become critical for the Russian Federation. If losses amount to about 50,000 per month, and this is quite realistic, I remind you that Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov spoke about such plans, then no 400,000 per year will save them, he explained. They will go into the red and lose the ability to conduct an offensive and even effectively defend themselves.
According to the expert, even without reaching critical losses, Russia is already approaching the need for new mobilisation. However, this can be done in a hybrid form. They will be forced to announce general mobilisation, but they will not call it that, as it will be something like partial mobilisation version 2 point 0, Kovalenko noted. This refers to rapid replenishment without proper training. They can mobilise 50 to 60 thousand people per month and immediately send them to the front without training, he added.
Due to the lack of significant success at the front, the Kremlin may try to change the situation through new escalation. In particular, the scenario of opening a new theatre of operations is not excluded. Russia needs a quick result for the domestic consumer, the expert noted, suggesting this could be an attempt at escalation, including even outside Ukraine. He suggests that it could be about the Baltic countries. Theoretically, they could try a scenario with the Baltic countries to demonstrate a quick result and use it as a tool for blackmailing Europe, Kovalenko explained.
The current pace of Russian mobilisation no longer corresponds to the scale of its losses, meaning there is no reason to panic. Even with the recruitment of 400,000 military personnel annually, the Russian Federation risks losing its ability to conduct offensive operations. The only option left for the Kremlin is a new wave of mobilisation or an attempt at sharp escalation to achieve a quick political effect. The Russian army has launched attempts at a spring summer offensive, and the occupiers have lost over 900 soldiers in a day and a half, according to the commander of Unmanned Forces, Robert Brovdi
