(JUBA) – Crude oil exports from South Sudan and Sudan have increased in recent months, offering a lifeline to international shipping firms operating aframax and suezmax tankers despite ongoing conflict in Sudan.
According to industry analysts, the recent uptick in shipments is largely due to progress in repairing critical oil pipelines connecting South Sudanese oilfields to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
Data from maritime analytics firm Signal Ocean shows that crude oil exports from South Sudan and Sudan now represent about 14% of all shipments transiting through the Red Sea. Most of these exports are transported using Aframax tankers, with Suezmax vessels also beginning to benefit from the growing trade volumes.
South Sudan’s primary crude types, Dar Blend and Nile Blend, are extracted from fields in the Upper Nile and Unity states, and then pumped through pipelines that run north through Sudan to reach export terminals on the Red Sea. The infrastructure, though frequently disrupted by regional instability, remains South Sudan’s only viable route to international markets.
Market analyst Maria Bertzeletou from Signal Ocean said, “The rebound in exports appears to be primarily driven by progress in pipeline repairs.”
These repairs have been crucial for restoring export capacity after months of disruption due to the civil conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023.
The continued flow of oil is also vital for South Sudan’s economy, where petroleum revenue accounts for over 90% of government income. The country relies heavily on daily oil production, which currently averages about 130,000 to 150,000 barrels per day.
With global oil prices hovering around $80 per barrel, this translates to potential monthly revenue of up to 82.8 billion South Sudanese Pounds (SSP) or approximately $18 million USD if uninterrupted.
South Sudan Estimated Monthly Oil Export Revenue (2025)
| Daily Production | Price per Barrel | Monthly Revenue (USD) | Monthly Revenue (SSP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130,000 barrels | $80 | $312 million | 1.435 trillion SSP |
| 150,000 barrels | $80 | $360 million | 1.656 trillion SSP |
Note: Government earnings are a fraction of total export value due to pipeline fees, transit costs and oil company shares.
Despite the export recovery, industry experts caution that the system remains fragile. The pipeline’s passage through conflict zones in Sudan continues to pose significant risks.
In early 2024, fighting in key transit regions caused temporary shutdowns, underlining the importance of political stability for South Sudan’s economy and regional oil trade.
For now, the improvement in pipeline operations is good news for South Sudan’s treasury and for the global tanker market. Aframax vessels, which typically carry between 80,000 and 120,000 deadweight tons, remain the most commonly used for these Red Sea shipments. Suezmax tankers, which are slightly larger, are expected to see more use if export volumes continue to rise.
Shipping analysts say the region’s role in oil logistics may become more significant if security stabilises and export volumes are maintained or increased. However, they also warn that any disruption could quickly reverse these gains.
South Sudan fragile pipeline lifeline remains a critical factor in determining the success of both its economy and its peacebuilding efforts.
