(KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese Ambassador to South Sudan, Isam Mohammed Hassan, has raised concerns that attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on oilfields and export routes could destabilise the region and jeopardise South Sudan’s economic lifeline.
Speaking at a press conference in Juba, Ambassador Hassan said that the RSF’s actions are not only an internal rebellion in Sudan but also a calculated campaign affecting bilateral relations and trade.
“The RSF is working to undermine relations between Sudan and neighbouring countries, particularly the Republic of South Sudan, because of the significant economic connection through oil,” he said.
Since South Sudan gained independence in 2011, oil has been central to the economies of both countries. While approximately 75 percent of oil reserves are in South Sudan, the crude is transported through pipelines in Sudan to Port Sudan for export. Any disruption to these routes directly threatens revenue for both nations.
Ambassador Hassan indicated that RSF aligned forces have targeted oil transport and storage infrastructure, raising alarm in both administrations.
“The militarisation of border areas and attacks on oil infrastructure risk dragging South Sudan into a broader regional crisis,” he added.
The diplomat also highlighted diplomatic efforts to maintain security and economic cooperation.
“We are monitoring the situation closely. The government of Sudan is actively seeking solutions through political, security, and economic channels,” he noted.
The RSF conflict has exacerbated the refugee situation, with South Sudanese fleeing into Sudan. Hassan warned that mismanaged refugee return programs could ignite further tensions between the two countries.
Since April 2023, Sudan has experienced civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF, resulting in over 15,000 deaths and millions displaced. The RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), controls large parts of western Sudan and key border crossings, which are crucial for oil transit and trade.
South Sudan relies on oil for over 90 percent of government revenue. Even short term disruptions to oil transportation could weaken the already fragile economy, highlighting the critical need for secured supply routes.
Economic risk factors and potential impact on South Sudan
| Risk Factor | Impact on South Sudan |
|---|---|
| RSF attacks on pipelines | Disruption of crude exports, revenue loss |
| Border militarisation | Threat to trade flow and security |
| Refugee influx | Increased social and economic pressure |
| Oil dependency | Over 90% of government revenue at risk |
| Export route control | Potential for short term revenue gaps |