(JUBA) — The 2018 peace agreement in South Sudan is at serious risk of collapsing unless regional and international actors take immediate steps to pressure the country’s political leaders to recommit to the process, according to the latest report by the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (R-JMEC).
Covering the period from 1 April to 30 June 2025, the R-JMEC’s quarterly review paints a grim picture of a deteriorating political and security situation. It identifies repeated violent clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army–In Opposition (SPLA-IO) as a primary obstacle to the peace deal’s implementation.
The commission’s interim chairperson, General (Retired) George Aggrey Owing, said the ongoing conflict, which escalated in February, threatens to completely derail the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Despite sustained diplomatic efforts by bodies such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), progress has stalled.
Dr Riek Machar, the First Vice President and leader of the SPLM-IO, remains under house arrest. Several of his government ministers and parliamentary allies are also detained. Others have either fled the capital, Juba, or left the country. According to R-JMEC, this has further paralysed dialogue between the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) and SPLM-IO.
The absence of direct talks between the political leadership highlights deeper issues of mistrust and unresolved grievances. This, the report states, has eroded public confidence in the peace process both within South Sudan and among its regional and international partners.
Compounding this instability are unilateral political moves by President Salva Kiir’s faction, the SPLM-In Government (SPLM-IG), including the dismissal and appointment of officials without consulting peace partners—actions that violate the agreement’s power sharing framework.
Despite the dire outlook, the report outlines possible paths forward. Chief among them is the urgent need for revitalised diplomatic engagement. The R-JMEC urges South Sudan’s leaders to prioritise peace and the well-being of the population. The R-ARCSS, it reiterates, remains the only viable framework for achieving long-term stability and prosperity if implemented in full.
However, the road to peace is blocked not just by political divisions, but also by financial and institutional paralysis. The TGoNU has failed to provide necessary funding to the National Electoral Commission (NEC), throwing the viability of the December 2026 elections into serious doubt.
| Institution | Funding Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| NEC | No funding | Elections delayed |
| Constitution Committee | Inactive | Legal framework stalled |
| Governance Cluster | Paralyzed | No progress on reforms |
The NEC is unable to launch its activities or move forward with the constitution making process, which must precede any legitimate electoral process. This legal vacuum, the report warns, poses a serious procedural risk.
Meanwhile, more than 1.5 million internally displaced persons and over 200,000 returnees urgently require support for reintegration, which has not been budgeted for by the government. Without these measures, their participation in the country’s political and economic life remains limited.
South Sudan’s humanitarian crisis has also worsened. Fighting in northern regions has destroyed medical facilities, disrupted supply chains, and led to widespread looting. Many communities already battling floods, hunger, and disease now find themselves without critical services.
According to the World Food Programme, at least 7.7 million of the country’s 12 million citizens are currently facing severe food insecurity. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) recently announced the closure of 13 health centres due to safety concerns, leaving vulnerable populations even more exposed.
Legislative reform efforts have stagnated. Article 1.18 of the R-ARCSS, which mandates reforms to key laws, saw no progress during the last quarter. This is largely due to the absence of SPLM-IO members who are either detained or unable to participate due to political restrictions. Parliament has not met since December 2024, and the 2025–2026 budget remains unapproved.
Nonetheless, the R-JMEC notes several positive developments that could help reverse the situation. The government has introduced a Treasury Single Account and activated the FreeBalance system to manage public finances more transparently. Anti-corruption bodies are receiving technical support, and a new law for fiscal monitoring is awaiting full ratification.
A nationwide payroll audit is set to begin in August 2025. The goal is to identify fraudulent employees and improve salary disbursement—a critical issue, as many civil servants have gone unpaid for months or even years.
Efforts to reform land policy are also under way. A Land Reform Unit has been created, and the Land Act 2009 is currently under parliamentary review. Reform of local government laws is expected to follow.
On transitional justice, a Selection Panel for the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing (CTRH) is being formed. This process follows pressure from the African Union Peace and Security Council and could pave the way for the establishment of the long-delayed Hybrid Court of South Sudan.
R-JMEC concludes with several recommendations. Chief among them is the urgent restoration of the Permanent Ceasefire. All parties must collaborate with the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM) to address alleged violations.
The commission calls for increased IGAD involvement, despite regional dynamics that may complicate enforcement. It also urges the African Union to re-engage in South Sudan’s peace efforts, particularly in supporting the CTRH and Hybrid Court mechanisms.
To sustain peace, financial support from international partners remains critical. Donor fatigue has left the peace process underfunded, with institutions like RJMEC and CTSAMVM struggling to operate.
Without renewed commitment and action, the R-ARCSS risks becoming another failed promise. The fate of South Sudan’s fragile peace hangs in the balance and time is running out.
