(KHARTOUM) – If the conflict in Sudan continues until the end of 2025, the country could lose nearly half of its economic value, according to a new report by a group of international war monitors.
The cost of repairing infrastructure alone may reach $30 billion, which is approximately 50 percent of Sudan’s gross domestic product (GDP). The warning comes at a time when regional economies such as South Sudan’s remain vulnerable to spillover effects from Sudan’s deepening crisis.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has published findings that paint a bleak picture of Sudan’s future if fighting does not end soon. Using a detailed economic model, the study forecasts one of the worst economic collapses in the country’s modern history, marked by lost lives, rising poverty and hunger and a sharp drop in employment, with women and people in rural areas expected to suffer the most.
The research, published in The Journal of Development Studies, is based on simulations of the ongoing war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which began in April 2023. The analysis shows that Sudan’s economy could shrink by 42 percent compared to pre-war levels if the conflict continues into 2025.
Key sectors of the economy are all expected to contract under continued conflict:
| Sector | Projected Contraction (%) |
|---|---|
| Industry | 53% |
| Services | 40% |
| Agriculture | 36% |
| Agrifood system | 33.6% |
Sudan’s GDP stood at $52 billion in December 2022. Prior to the war, the economy was on track to grow by about $3 billion per year. However, the report estimates GDP has already dropped to $33.2 billion and could fall further to $31 billion by December 2025.
This economic decline mirrors what the United Nations warned earlier this year: war is eroding Sudan’s wealth, primarily through the collapse of agriculture, industrial production and formal trade.
The study highlights that while food services have seen slight growth due to demand from displaced communities, agriculture, food processing, transport and trade have suffered heavy losses.
Professor Hassan Bashir Mohamed Nour, a Sudanese political economist, described the situation as a “near total collapse of economic activity.” He noted that GDP shrank by 29.4 percent in 2023 alone.
Inflation has also worsened. Consumer prices rose by an estimated 170 percent in 2024, compared to 66 percent in 2023. Forecasts suggest inflation may ease to around 89 percent by late 2025, assuming agricultural production improves and conflict reduces. However, living costs remain out of reach for many.
The World Bank now estimates that 71 percent of Sudan’s population lives in extreme poverty—surviving on less than $3 per day—up from 33 percent in 2022. This economic strain is of growing concern in neighbouring South Sudan, whose own recovery and cross border trade remain closely linked to conditions in Sudan.
The conflict’s effects go beyond the economy. Public health and education have both suffered deeply. Professor Nour noted that over 12 million people are internally displaced, and close to four million have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, including South Sudan.
Famine is spreading across at least ten regions, and outbreaks of cholera and measles are increasing due to collapsed healthcare systems and displaced medical staff. Humanitarian groups say 80 percent of hospitals in conflict zones are no longer functional.
Education is also in crisis. Millions of children have lost access to schooling, setting back progress for an entire generation.
Despite these grim figures, some experts remain sceptical. Dr Mohamed Elnair, a Sudanese economist, questioned the accuracy of the data used in the reports. He claimed some studies lacked field based evidence and were influenced by political bias. According to him, only 20 percent of Sudan’s 85 million hectares of arable land is currently used, suggesting untapped agricultural potential.
Dr Elnair also pointed to recent grain production, mainly sorghum grown near the Ethiopian border, and trade activity through Port Sudan—even though the port has come under attack. He argued that despite the war, Sudan has avoided major shortages of essential goods.
However, even Dr Elnair acknowledged serious challenges: negative economic growth, poverty, inflation and a rapidly weakening currency. Still, he rejected the idea that Sudan is nearing total collapse, saying the economy is adapting and that gold exports are now better regulated.
According to IFPRI’s research, the war is threatening 4.6 million jobs, with overall employment expected to fall by 44.7 percent. The agricultural sector alone could lose 700,000 jobs. Poverty is projected to rise by 19 percentage points, pushing another 7.5 million people below the poverty line. Rural populations will be the most affected, with poverty rates expected to jump by over 32 percentage points. Women will be hit the hardest.
The report also shows that income losses will affect all social groups, especially low income households with limited education. The economic gap between urban centres and marginalised regions is likely to widen even further, creating a more divided society.
Dr Khalid Siddig, senior research fellow at IFPRI and co-author of the study, said the effects of war on Sudan’s economy will remain long after the violence ends. He called for urgent action, including emergency employment programmes, support for agriculture, and rebuilding healthcare and education services.
More than 25 million people in Sudan are now facing acute food insecurity. The report recommends restoring disrupted value chains and ensuring international support for the country’s recovery.
Without these steps, the damage could become irreversible, not just for Sudan, but for neighbouring countries like South Sudan that depend on regional stability for their own development.
