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(RUSSIA) – Internal surveys from the Russian Federation reveal growing public and military fatigue over the ongoing war in Ukraine, challenging the Kremlin’s continued claims of unity and support for military objectives. Ahead of the 2026 elections, regional administrations commissioned a survey showing that 83% of Russians feel exhausted by the conflict, while 56% want it to end immediately. Support for continued hostilities has fallen to around 23%, a sharp decline from previous years, even as the Russian dictator Vladimir insists publicly that national unity remains strong.

The divergence between public sentiment and state messaging is at a historical high. The dictator continues to expect his forces to capture all of the Donetsk region by February 2026, while foreign-policy aides maintain maximalist demands. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov states that demilitarisation and denazification are non-negotiable, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insists that hostilities will end only once these goals are achieved. The data is significant not because Russians suddenly oppose the war, but because the level of fatigue is now impossible to ignore, even for those in power.

Russians attribute their exhaustion to hundreds of thousands of casualties, rising inflation, collapsing wages, and a permanent war economy that diverts nearly all resources toward military spending. Taxes are frequently raised to fill budget gaps, with the next increase planned to lift the value-added tax from 20% to 22%. Ukrainian deep strikes have breached Russian air defences regularly, hitting refineries, power plants, ports, and ammunition depots, further eroding confidence. Many citizens now feel that the Kremlin has imported the war into Russian territory. For the first time since the invasion, Ukrainians are targeting strategic sites far behind the front line. In October 2025, for every Russian who reported a slight improvement in finances, three reported a decline, the highest deterioration in living standards since 2022.

Sentiment within the military is also shifting. Communications among senior Russian officers indicate a recognition that the war has reached a political and strategic deadlock, sustained largely by the dictator’s personal determination. This does not suggest imminent collapse or a planned challenge to his power. Many officers remain indifferent, ready to adapt whether the war ends or continues, while falsifying reports and exaggerating successes. Some quietly admit they would prefer peace to avoid further unnecessary loss of life, but none are willing to confront a system that rewards obedience and punishes honesty.

Several Russian military analysts are advocating for a peace settlement, recognising that the army cannot achieve its initial objectives given the scale of losses. Despite claims of rapid advances, progress is slow relative to the campaign’s early pace. The Russian army now relies on motorcycles, improvised trucks, civilian cars stripped of doors, and small infantry squads as expendables rather than the modern tanks and infantry fighting vehicles of the early war years. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has observed that Russia is running short of money, manpower, and strategy, with hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers dying for the dictator’s ambitions.

Russian War Impact Overview

Indicator Statistic Notes
Public Feeling of War Fatigue 83% Highest reported since 2022
Desire to End War Immediately 56% Sharp increase from previous year
Support for Continuing War 23% Significant decline
Living Standards Worsening 3:1 For every improvement, three report decline
Daily Russian Military Losses 1000+ Replacement of personnel increasingly complex

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2025-12-01