(JUBA) – South Sudan is likely to experience a mix of drier and warmer than normal conditions in several parts of the country between August and October 2025, even as its neighbours such as Uganda and western Kenya prepare for heavier rains, according to the latest climate outlook by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The seasonal forecast indicates that while north-western and south-eastern South Sudan may experience heavier than normal rainfall, the central, south-western and north-eastern areas are expected to face drier than usual conditions throughout August. The pattern reflects ongoing variability in weather trends across East Africa, with key humanitarian implications, especially in agriculture and water access.
According to ICPAC, the warmer than usual temperatures will dominate much of northern and central South Sudan. This heat will extend into the broader Horn of Africa region, including northern and southern Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, and parts of Somalia. Temperatures are also expected to rise in neighbouring countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
However, southern South Sudan, including areas bordering Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, may see cooler than average temperatures, alongside parts of western Eritrea, western Sudan, and north-western Kenya.
Here is a summary of the rainfall and temperature forecast affecting South Sudan and neighbouring countries:
| Region | Rainfall Forecast (Aug 2025) | Temperature Forecast (Aug–Oct 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| North-western South Sudan | Wetter than usual | Warmer than usual |
| South-eastern South Sudan | Wetter than usual | Warmer than usual |
| Central, South-western, North-east South Sudan | Drier than usual | Warmer than usual |
| Southern South Sudan | Cooler than usual | Cooler than usual |
| Uganda & Western Kenya | Wetter than usual | Warmer than usual (north/central), cooler in west |
| Northern & Southern Sudan | Wetter (north), warmer overall | Warmer than usual |
| Tanzania | Warmer than usual | Warmer than usual |
The broader regional forecast points to wetter than normal conditions in Uganda, Rwanda, western Kenya, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and most of Ethiopia. Conversely, parts of coastal Kenya, south-western and north-eastern South Sudan and isolated western Ethiopia are likely to remain dry.
This seasonal outlook may raise concerns for South Sudan’s rural communities that rely heavily on subsistence farming and seasonal rain fed agriculture. Any disruption in rainfall patterns could impact food production and further strain humanitarian needs in areas already affected by displacement and insecurity.
Policymakers, humanitarian agencies, and farmers in South Sudan are advised to follow regular updates from ICPAC and the South Sudan Meteorological Department for more detailed localised forecasts and guidance.
