(Washington) – U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be shifting his approach toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to foreign policy analysts.
Observers say Trump has become increasingly unsettled by Putin’s unpredictability and rigid nationalism, prompting a broader reassessment of his strategy in international relations.
The move comes as global tensions over nuclear weapons and regional conflicts intensify — developments closely watched by countries like South Sudan that rely on global diplomatic and military stability.
Analyst Robert Fox, speaking to Times Radio, noted that Trump, who prides himself on his deal making skills, has been increasingly frustrated by Putin’s resistance to negotiation and his assertive imperial posture. The unpredictability of Russia’s president reportedly undermines Trump’s belief in his own negotiating strengths.
Trump’s concerns come amid renewed global fears of nuclear weapons proliferation. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted Trump’s administration for taking what he called the “correct action” in limiting nuclear escalation.
Fox supported that view, suggesting history may judge the U.S. intervention positively, particularly in the context of emerging nuclear threats — a concern not only for major powers but also for smaller states vulnerable to shifting global security dynamics.
Trump is said to be focusing his attention increasingly on the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These Gulf states are key economic and strategic partners for the United States, and Trump reportedly sees their stability as crucial. Any disruption in this region — potentially triggered by Russia’s actions in Ukraine or Iran’s nuclear activity — is seen as undermining his broader regional interests.
Fox also highlighted Israel’s increased military activity against Iran, suggesting that regime change is being discussed more openly in Israeli political circles. However, U.S. officials are said to be cautious, reportedly advising Israeli leaders to avoid rushing into conflict without clear alternatives in place — a lesson many remember from the Iraq War. Trump, while historically supportive of Israel, is believed to oppose any large-scale military intervention that could lead to a long and costly war.
Satellite images and other intelligence have reportedly indicated suspicious movements around Iran’s key nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, where the U.S. recently targeted potential weapons storage with repeated Tomahawk missile strikes. Analysts say these efforts indicate a broader campaign to degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities before any diplomatic efforts resume.
In a subtle yet notable change, Trump has resumed limited support for Ukraine, offering high quality but limited military assistance. While he is not committing to the same levels of support seen during his first term, there are signs of a renewed partnership, especially as the U.S. joins its European allies in NATO to maintain pressure on Russia. For countries like South Sudan, which depend on peacekeeping and international order, a cohesive NATO and stable U.S. foreign policy remain critical.
One figure playing a key role in aligning Trump with NATO is outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who has publicly referred to Trump as the “daddy” of NATO — a controversial term that underscores the complexity of diplomatic messaging. Despite the awkward phrasing, Rutte is credited with maintaining dialogue between Europe and Trump, and helping to push for the NATO commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035.
While Trump is often characterised by his blunt language and unpredictable style, analysts argue that his second presidential bid is already showing signs of a more strategic approach. His evolving stance on Putin, his cautious posture on Israel and Iran, and his recalibrated support for Ukraine suggest a more nuanced foreign policy than many expected.
In the case of Iran, U.S. officials are reportedly wary of supporting any replacement leadership without a clear and credible alternative. Previous missteps, such as backing Ahmad Chalabi in Iraq, are cautionary tales for the current administration. The son of the late Shah of Iran has offered himself as a successor, but U.S. insiders indicate Trump is not giving him serious attention.
