(PARIS, FRANCE) – Western air power could be the most effective tool for securing Ukraine’s future and deterring further Russian aggression, according to Sean Bell, a former Royal Air Force air vice marshal and military analyst, following high level talks in Paris on post war security guarantees for Ukraine.
Speaking after a meeting of the so called coalition of the willing, Bell said Western air power would be a decisive factor in shaping the calculations of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. He argued that air superiority remains the area where Western forces hold a clear advantage and where Russia has consistently failed to perform during the war in Ukraine.
The Paris talks brought together leaders from around 35 European states and focused on security arrangements that would come into effect after any ceasefire or peace deal. Britain and France announced their intention to deploy troops to Ukraine under such an agreement, with backing from the United States. The proposal is designed to provide credible guarantees that go beyond political declarations.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a declaration of intent outlining how partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil. According to the declaration, British, French and allied troops would help secure Ukraine’s skies and seas, support the regeneration of Ukraine’s armed forces and provide protection for weapons and military equipment.
Officials said that, following a ceasefire, the UK and France would establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities to support Ukraine’s defensive needs. The framework would also allow for participation in United States led monitoring and verification of any ceasefire agreement.
Bell stressed that these commitments are intended for a post conflict phase and should not be confused with immediate battlefield intervention. He noted that Ukraine’s leadership has learned from past experience that written assurances alone are insufficient. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 in exchange for security guarantees that later failed to prevent Russian aggression.
While describing the Paris meeting as an important step, Bell said it does not in itself bring peace closer. He pointed out that Russia was not involved in the talks and that there is little evidence that Vladimir Putin is prepared to engage seriously in negotiations. Western intelligence assessments, including from the United Kingdom, suggest Moscow is not close to seeking a settlement.
There is also concern that stronger Western commitments could provoke a hostile reaction from the Kremlin. Bell said it is difficult to assess whether the announcements would deter Russia or harden its position, particularly given wider geopolitical tensions involving the United States.
He noted that the talks cannot be separated from recent strains within the NATO alliance, including controversial statements and actions by former United States president Donald Trump on issues such as Greenland and Venezuela. These developments have raised questions in Europe about long term American reliability and have increased pressure on European states to demonstrate greater responsibility for their own security.
One significant outcome of the Paris discussions was confirmation that the United States would support a future peacekeeping or stabilisation force in Ukraine if it came under attack. This marks the first explicit indication of concrete United States backing for such security guarantees in the context of a ceasefire.
Military analysts caution, however, that deploying ground forces at the scale required would be extremely challenging. Ukraine has a long border with Russia, and estimates suggest that up to 200,000 troops could be needed to provide effective coverage. For the United Kingdom, contributing even a fraction of that number on a rotational basis would place heavy demands on its armed forces.
Bell said that Europe alone would struggle to generate a sufficiently large and sustainable ground force. He added that the United States is unlikely to commit large numbers of troops at a time when it is reviewing its overall military posture in Europe.
For this reason, Bell believes the focus should shift away from the headline issue of boots on the ground and towards the strategic use of air, sea and space power. He said Russia’s air force has failed to establish control of the skies over Ukraine, undermining Moscow’s claim to be a leading military power.
Western air power, particularly that of the United States, could therefore serve as a powerful deterrent without requiring massive troop deployments. Bell described this advantage as a form of asymmetry that could underpin robust security guarantees and force Moscow to reassess the risks of renewed aggression.
European leaders at the meeting said the coalition’s purpose is to help deliver a peace that can last. Alongside potential force deployments, allies agreed to continue long term provision of armaments for Ukraine’s defence and to work towards binding commitments to support Ukraine in the event of any future Russian attack.
They also pledged to maintain pressure on Russia through further measures targeting oil traders and shadow fleet operators seen as funding the Kremlin’s war effort. Officials said these steps would continue until Russia engages in negotiations in good faith.
Western leaders acknowledged that the hardest challenges still lie ahead. While the Paris meeting marked progress in aligning European and American positions, translating political intent into practical and credible security arrangements for Ukraine remains a complex task.