(KYIV) – As the conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran intensifies, the global community is confronting a reality long familiar to Ukrainians: the devastating efficacy of Shahed-type attack drones. Since the autumn of 2022, when Iran first supplied hundreds of these loitering munitions, the Russian dictator has scaled production and refined the technology, launching waves of drones—sometimes exceeding 800 in a single night—to overwhelm air defences and terrorise civilian populations.
The Shahed, often referred to by the Russian name “Geran” (Geranium), is a low-cost, high-impact weapon roughly the size of a golf cart. Powered by engines that produce a distinctive lawnmower-like sound, these drones can fly thousands of kilometres to strike stationary targets with payloads equivalent to hundreds of sticks of dynamite. While a single drone costs tens of thousands of dollars to produce, it can inflict millions of dollars in damage to residential buildings or energy infrastructure.
Ukraine’s five years of frontline experience has created a unique adaptation spiral. Initially reliant on mobile groups—soldiers in pickup trucks with Browning machine guns—Kyiv has innovated rapidly. Most notably, Ukraine has achieved a “holy grail” of attrition: using $3,000 to $5,000 (approx. £2,340 to £3,900) interceptor drones to down $50,000 (approx. £39,000) Russian drones. This shift significantly alters the economics of protracted conflict, moving away from the unsustainable practice of using million-pound Western missiles, such as those from Patriot or IRIS-T systems, against cheap targets.
Despite these advancements, Western military organisations, including NATO, have been criticised for a “failure of humility” and a lingering “peacetime mindset.” Retired Australian General Mick Ryan notes that while Eastern European nations like Poland and the Baltics have made structural changes, Western and Pacific nations remain unprepared. Drones launched by the Russian dictator have already entered NATO airspace in Poland and Romania without a coordinated response, serving as what experts call a “dress rehearsal” for wider warfare.
The US and at least one Gulf state, likely Qatar or the UAE, are currently in talks to purchase Ukrainian interceptor drones, citing their cost-effectiveness and ease of mass production. However, scaling these systems remains contingent on complex international supply chains for motors and navigation modules. Ukrainian officials warn that Russia, China, and North Korea are actively sharing resources and bypassing sanctions to include US and European electrical components in their latest models. Experts conclude that the priority for NATO must shift toward breaking the production chains of these hostile regimes through direct economic and military pressure.
