(COPENHAGEN, DENMARK) – Russia’s infantry campaign in Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain, pushing Moscow to turn its attention towards the Baltic region, according to defence experts.
Denmark’s Prime Minister described a recent drone incursion into Danish airspace as the most serious attack yet on the country’s critical infrastructure. Several flights were disrupted after multiple large drones were detected, including near a key military base. Norwegian authorities also suspended operations at Oslo’s commercial airport as a precaution.
Defence editor Robert Fox noted that drones of this size are usually military in nature. He said the pattern mirrors other incidents across Europe, including drones over Poland and Romania, as well as Russian MiG-31 jets flying close to Estonian airspace.
Observers point out that Russia is increasingly testing NATO defences through such operations. Both Denmark and Norway, despite their smaller size, have played outsized roles in supporting NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Ukraine.
Military analysts say Moscow’s battlefield challenges in Ukraine explain the shift. Despite its numerical advantage, Russia has struggled to secure key towns such as Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian counterattacks continue.
Fox explained that while Russia has deployed advanced technology such as AI-enabled surveillance drones, its conventional infantry operations remain strained. “The infantry battle is becoming impossible for Russia,” he said. “That is why the Baltic countries now appear to be the target.”
NATO has been forced to respond. A recent meeting of the North Atlantic Council considered options following drone incursions into Polish airspace and armed Russian jets flying without transponders near Estonia. Chapter Four consultations, which allow NATO states to coordinate defence measures short of triggering the alliance’s mutual defence clause, have been activated.
Some member states, including Poland, have indicated readiness to take stronger measures, even suggesting that Russian aircraft could be shot down if provocations continue. Britain has deployed Typhoon jets, though experts warn that NATO’s immediate readiness remains limited.
Fox cautioned that Europe is at risk of a “chapter of accidents,” where an unintended escalation could trigger a wider conflict. “Something could be shot down in the coming weeks,” he said, warning that NATO’s preparation is still inadequate.
European allies are also increasingly aware that future U.S. commitments may be uncertain. The administration of Donald Trump has signalled scepticism towards automatic defence guarantees, a stance that defence analysts believe Moscow is seeking to exploit.
According to experts, Europe has already overtaken the United States in the quantity of military supplies delivered to Ukraine, though Washington continues to play a vital role in intelligence and communication. Russia, meanwhile, has hinted at possible renewed dialogue between dictator Vladimir Putin and Trump, though such talks are unlikely to address Ukraine.
The situation is further complicated by Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which could intensify in the winter months. Analysts say damage to pipelines, refineries and gas lines could deepen Moscow’s difficulties as temperatures fall.
Fox concluded that the next few months could be decisive. “This is where the big crisis could come, and within months,” he said.