(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine is showing signs of serious strain as new assessments indicate that Moscow is struggling to maintain momentum due to heavy losses and limited reserves. Analysts say Russian forces are increasingly exposed as they shift resources from one front to another, creating vulnerabilities across the battlefield.
The Institute for the Study of War has reported that Russia currently lacks the additional troops and equipment needed to sustain large scale offensive operations. Without sufficient reserves to reinforce different sectors, Russian commanders have been forced to make difficult trade offs, weakening positions in some areas to support others.
Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, have claimed that the size of the Russian military has expanded by more than 400,000 personnel. Independent analysis disputes this assertion, noting that recruitment levels are largely matching daily losses rather than increasing overall force strength. Estimates suggest Russia is losing about 1,000 personnel each day while recruiting a similar number of contract soldiers, leaving the total size of the force largely unchanged.
Military analysts believe that Russia may be forced to announce another large mobilisation in 2026, potentially calling up around 300,000 reservists. Many of those eligible have so far avoided service, despite financial incentives offered over recent years. Any future mobilisation could test public tolerance within Russia, particularly as the war continues with no clear end in sight.
Even if additional personnel are mobilised, analysts warn that Russia faces severe equipment shortages. Ukrainian artillery and first person view drones have destroyed a significant portion of Russian supply vehicles, sharply reducing Moscow’s ability to move troops and materials safely to the front lines.
As a result, Russian forces have increasingly relied on improvised transport. Civilian vehicles have been widely used in previous stages of the war, but many of these have also been destroyed. Recent footage circulating online shows Russian troops using horses to move along front line areas, suggesting a lack of available motorised transport. Observers say these incidents are no longer isolated and appear to be becoming more frequent.
Ukrainian drone operators have reported attempting to target Russian soldiers while avoiding harm to the animals, underscoring both the unusual conditions on the battlefield and the extent of Russia’s logistical difficulties.
The developments point to mounting pressure on the Russian military under the leadership of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. While fighting continues across multiple fronts, analysts say the appearance of horses in combat zones reflects a deeper problem for Moscow: sustaining a modern war effort with shrinking resources, rising losses and an increasingly stretched supply system.
Estimated Russian personnel balance
| Category | Approximate daily figure |
|---|---|
| Estimated daily casualties | 1,000 |
| Estimated daily new recruits | 1,000 |
| Net force growth | Near zero |
Analysts caution that while Russia remains capable of continued fighting, these trends raise serious questions about its ability to maintain prolonged offensive operations against a well supplied and adaptive Ukrainian defence.
