(MOSCOW) – Russia is facing growing military, economic and diplomatic pressure as its war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, with signs that Iran, a key tactical partner, may be slipping from its orbit amid widespread unrest and reports of mass executions by Iranian authorities.
The war has now lasted 1,418 days, matching the length of the Soviet Union’s involvement in the Second World War. Despite the scale of the effort, Russian forces have achieved limited territorial gains since late 2022, largely remaining bogged down in eastern Ukraine. Analysts note that Moscow could have declared victory more than three years ago, retaining control of much of the Donbas region and maintaining a land corridor to Crimea, while avoiding enormous financial and human losses.
Russian military commentators have openly questioned the outcome of the campaign. Some have warned that prolonged positional warfare, heavy casualties and limited advances are creating long term instability inside Russia, while the strategic benefits are increasingly enjoyed by other global powers rather than Moscow.
In recent days, Ukraine has intensified strikes deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian forces confirmed attacks on oil and gas drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea, an oil depot in Volgograd, and a thermal power plant in the Oryol region. The strikes reportedly caused fires and temporary power outages affecting hundreds of thousands of residents. Ukrainian officials say the operations are aimed at degrading Russia’s military logistics and energy revenues that help finance the war.
Ukraine has also continued targeting Russian energy infrastructure despite the distance from the front lines. Video footage released by Kyiv shows drone strikes on offshore platforms, which analysts say remain operational because Russia is reluctant to halt production due to revenue concerns. The attacks underscore Ukraine’s growing capacity to strike strategic assets far from active combat zones.
At the same time, the United States has stepped up enforcement against Russia linked oil shipments. US authorities have seized several tankers associated with the so called shadow fleet used to transport sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. American officials say crews have been released, while vessels and cargoes have been confiscated as part of sanctions enforcement.
Inside Russia, the economic impact of the war is becoming more visible. According to reporting cited by international financial media, oil and gas taxes fell from about 30 percent of federal revenue in 2024 to around 24 percent in 2025. Russia’s National Wealth Fund is estimated to have reserves sufficient to cover budget deficits for only about one year. Average real wages are reported to be about 5 percent lower than in 2022, and surveys suggest a majority of Russians feel worse off since the invasion began. To compensate, Moscow has raised corporate taxes, expanded income tax brackets and increased value added tax to 22 percent from 2026.
The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has continued long range missile demonstrations, including the launch of an Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile towards the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. Ukrainian officials said the missile carried no conventional warhead and caused limited damage, but described the launch as an attempt to intimidate both Ukraine and European states. Military analysts have noted the high cost of such missiles, estimated at around 40 million US dollars each, compared with their limited battlefield effect.
Ukraine also continues to face nightly drone and missile attacks on civilian areas and critical infrastructure. Recent strikes on Kyiv killed several people, injured dozens and left thousands without heat, electricity and water during freezing temperatures. Ukrainian authorities say the attacks are deliberate attempts to terrorise civilians rather than achieve military objectives.
Beyond the battlefield, political developments are reshaping regional alliances. Iran has been rocked by nationwide protests, with human rights groups reporting hundreds of deaths and thousands detained. Authorities have imposed widespread internet shutdowns as demonstrations spread across major cities. Ukrainian officials have accused Tehran of supporting Russia’s war while violently repressing its own population, and have called for international attention to the situation.
Reports have also emerged suggesting that Iranian leadership may be transferring gold reserves abroad, including to Russia, amid fears of regime collapse. Russian commentators have played down the potential loss of Iran, describing the relationship as a tactical partnership rather than a permanent alliance, but analysts say a change of government in Tehran would weaken Moscow’s position further.
Elsewhere in the region, Moldova and Ukraine are tightening controls around the Russian backed breakaway territory of Transnistria, raising speculation about possible political change there. Protests also continue in Georgia against a pro Russian government following disputed elections, adding to the sense of instability along Russia’s western periphery.
Despite the pressure, international support for Ukraine continues. Britain has announced funding of more than 260 million pounds, equivalent to about 330 million US dollars at current exchange rates, to help prepare Ukrainian forces for future security arrangements after a ceasefire, although prospects for negotiations remain uncertain.
