(LONDON) – Sir Bill Browder, the anti corruption campaigner and long time critic of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, has warned that a proposed United States sanctions package could inflict severe financial damage on Moscow if fully implemented. He said that the bill, championed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and now backed publicly by Donald Trump, could cut off Russia’s most important source of revenue and force the Kremlin to rethink its war against Ukraine.
Graham announced that the long delayed sanctions proposal, first introduced in April, now has 85 co sponsors in the Senate. The bill would apply heavy secondary sanctions and tariffs, reportedly reaching as high as 500 percent, on countries that continue to import Russian energy and other exports if Russia refuses to enter a credible peace process.
Browder explained that Russia’s war machine is sustained almost entirely by revenue from oil sales to China, India and Turkey. He said that previous restrictions imposed by Western governments have not stopped the flow of money that enables the Kremlin to continue its assault on Ukraine. According to him, if buyers are forced to end purchases due to overwhelming economic penalties, Russia would lose “pretty much all the money” needed to keep fighting.
However, Browder stressed that the bill does not force action. It merely grants authority to the president, authority he already holds. The ultimate decision to act will rest with Trump. Browder noted that Trump has consistently avoided moves that might significantly reduce the Kremlin’s income.
Trump’s aides told Graham that the US president will sign the bill if it reaches his desk, provided that it keeps full presidential discretion on how sanctions are applied. Browder said that Trump already has the ability to impose tariffs and sanctions on buyers of Russian oil but has only used this selectively, particularly with India. He added that Trump has taken a harder line recently by sanctioning Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, a shift Browder described as unexpected given Trump’s previous reluctance.
If Trump both signs and enforces these secondary sanctions, Browder believes it could provide Ukraine with a crucial strategic advantage. War depends on resources, he said, and Russia’s ability to fund its military has so far exceeded Ukraine’s. But this could change if Ukraine gains access to an estimated three hundred billion US Dollars in frozen Russian central bank reserves. Browder expects progress on that front within the next half year.
The impact of the war is becoming more visible inside Russia. The Kremlin is reportedly preparing tax increases to raise additional revenue, including raising value added tax from 20 percent to 22 percent. Russia is also expected to increase taxes on alcohol, digital devices, luxury goods and car registrations. However, Browder emphasised that official Russian economic data cannot be trusted, describing Russia as “a lying state” that manipulates figures to obscure the true extent of economic decline.
He said that the apparent slowdown to one percent growth is almost certainly false and that large parts of the population are already suffering severe hardship. Only a small elite in central Moscow and St Petersburg enjoy relative comfort. Russia’s income tax rate remains at 13 percent, which Browder said protects oligarchs at the expense of ordinary citizens.
Economic inequality in Russia, he noted, has always been extreme, with around one thousand people controlling most of the country’s wealth while the vast majority live in poverty. He said this imbalance has grown worse in wartime, although public protest is impossible because dissent risks lengthy imprisonment.
The Kremlin has recently indicated that it is open to participating in future peace summits, but Browder dismissed these statements as an attempt to delay further Western action. He said that Moscow has never softened its demands and continues to seek the total subjugation of Ukraine.
Ukraine is urging the European Union to release frozen Russian state assets worth an estimated one hundred sixty three billion US Dollars at next month’s summit. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Ukraine faces a budget deficit in early 2026 if international funding declines, particularly if the United States limits future support. Browder considers the release of frozen assets essential for Ukraine’s continued defence and believes EU leaders eventually will approve the measure.
Below is an illustrative table summarising key financial points from the interview:
| Item | Local Value | Approx. Value in US Dollars | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Russian state assets (EU) | — | $163 billion | Awaiting EU decision |
| Frozen Russian central bank reserves (global estimate) | — | $300 billion | Possible access for Ukraine within months |
| Proposed tariff on buyers of Russian energy | Up to 500 percent | — | Part of US sanctions bill |
| Russia Value Added Tax (proposed increase) | 20 percent to 22 percent | — | Broad impact on everyday Russians |
Browder said that only extreme financial pressure will persuade the Kremlin to stop bombing Ukrainian cities. He argues that Russia’s leadership will not agree to a ceasefire unless it becomes financially impossible to continue the war. He added that Putin uses the conflict to distract the Russian public from deep failures at home.
He concluded that cutting Russia’s energy revenues and releasing frozen Russian funds to Ukraine are the most decisive steps the West can take. Without these measures, he warned, Russia will continue to pursue its maximalist goals and Ukraine’s survival will depend on the speed and resolve of its allies.
