(LONDON) – The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is appearing increasingly weakened by heavy troop losses, fading overseas alliances and changing United States military actions, according to Bill Browder, founder of the Magnitsky Justice Campaign.
Speaking on the programme Frontline with Kate Gerbeau, Browder said Russia continues to suffer what he described as unbelievable casualties in its war against Ukraine. He said around a thousand Russian soldiers are being killed each day, but argued that the Kremlin’s main strategy is to outlast Western support rather than achieve success on the battlefield.
Browder said the Russian dictator believes time is on his side because Russia is a dictatorship where there are no elections to remove him from power. He said this allows the Kremlin to impose severe penalties on its own population while waiting for democratic countries to lose patience and reduce support for Ukraine. According to Browder, the central calculation in Moscow is that Western societies will grow tired long before Russia runs out of people and resources.
He said the situation has become more complicated for the Kremlin following what he described as a more forceful posture by the United States at the start of the year. Browder pointed to Washington’s willingness to intervene abroad, including actions related to Venezuela, strong rhetoric on Greenland and threats towards Iran. He said this has produced mixed reactions inside the Kremlin.
On one hand, Browder said Russian officials have attempted to use US rhetoric to justify their own actions, arguing that if Washington can discuss taking territory by force, Moscow should face less criticism for Crimea or Ukraine. On the other hand, he said recent US military actions have highlighted Russia’s failures.
Browder said the US operation that removed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was a clear demonstration of American military strength. He said the United States was able to neutralise defences, seize the leader of what he described as a rogue regime and withdraw without losing a single soldier. He contrasted this with Russia’s war in Ukraine, which he said has lasted four years and cost more than one million Russian casualties.
He added that these events have damaged Russia’s relationships with countries it once treated as client states. Browder said Moscow has already lost Syria and Venezuela as reliable allies and is now at risk of losing influence over Iran. He said the Russian dictator has struggled to hold onto allies at a time when US actions make Washington appear dominant and Russia increasingly isolated.
Browder said this shift has encouraged greater attention on Russian oil exports and the so called shadow fleet used to bypass sanctions. He noted that US moves against Venezuelan shipping overlap with Russian networks, which he said has further embarrassed the Kremlin. However, he also expressed scepticism about whether US policy would extend to directly seizing Russian vessels not linked to Venezuela.
He said Ukraine has taken a more direct approach. According to Browder, Ukrainian forces under President Volodymyr Zelensky have systematically disrupted vessels linked to Russian oil exports, both in the Black Sea and beyond. He described this as one of the most effective strategies currently being used against Russia’s war economy.
Browder also referred to recent steps by Britain to identify new legal grounds to seize oil tankers that are deemed stateless under sanctions and money laundering laws. He said it was striking that such measures had not been used more widely before, allowing illegal trade to continue for so long.
Turning to conditions inside Russia, Browder said ordinary people are increasingly affected by the war. He said travel to Europe has become extremely difficult, with the number of Schengen visas issued to Russians falling by about 90 percent. He added that air travel within Russia is frequently disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks, leaving passengers stranded for hours in airports.
He said Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refining capacity have led to fuel shortages across the country. Browder also said the human cost has been severe, citing Ukrainian estimates that around 1.2 million Russian men have been killed or permanently disabled. He said this scale of loss is hard to imagine and is likely causing private anger across Russian society.
Browder said violent crime has also risen as soldiers return home traumatised by the war. He said many have been conditioned by extreme violence and now pose risks inside Russia itself. According to Browder, the Kremlin is reluctant to confront these individuals because it still relies on them to continue fighting.
He also addressed concerns about Russia’s neighbours. Browder said Armenia has already drifted away from Moscow after Russia failed to protect it during conflict with Azerbaijan. He said this has badly damaged trust and weakened Russia’s influence in the region.
He added that Russia is also losing ground elsewhere, including in Moldova, where Russian troops in the Transnistria region are increasingly isolated. Browder said these developments show Russia is losing influence across several fronts.
Finally, he said the war has produced the opposite of Moscow’s stated aims. He noted that while the Kremlin claimed NATO expansion was a reason for invading Ukraine, both Finland and Sweden have since joined the alliance. Browder said this outcome directly contradicts the goals of Russia’s so called special military operation.
