(BRUSSELS) – The European Union is reportedly considering a “reverse expansion” strategy that could see Ukraine join the bloc as early as 2027, according to diplomatic sources cited by Politico. The proposal outlines a phased accession process, granting Kyiv expanded access to EU institutions and informal participation in key negotiations before all reform benchmarks are fully met. While Brussels officials emphasize that no concessions will be made on the actual reforms required for full membership, the move is intended as a robust signal of commitment to Ukraine and a counter to enlargement sceptics within the union. To overcome potential vetoes from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the EU is weighing various pressure tactics, ranging from diplomatic leverage through US channels to the invocation of Article 7 to suspend Budapest’s voting rights.
In Washington, the White House continues to distance itself from the Kremlin despite Moscow’s attempts to engage with the newly formed Peace Council. The Russian administration, led by dictator Vladimir Putin, reportedly proposed funding a one billion dollar (£735 million) initiative using Russian assets already frozen in the United States. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov admitted three weeks later that Washington had not responded to the offer. This diplomatic silence coincides with a significant shift in the South Caucasus, where the United States is solidifying ties with Armenia, a traditional Russian ally. During a historic visit to Yerevan, US Vice President J.D. Vance signed an agreement to invest billions in Armenia’s civil nuclear energy sector. The deal, aiming to reduce Yerevan’s reliance on the Russian-supplied Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, includes an initial 5 billion dollars (£3.68 billion) in exports and a further 4 billion dollars (£2.94 billion) in long term fuel and maintenance contracts for modern American small modular reactors. Additionally, Armenia has purchased millions of dollars worth of US V-BAT reconnaissance drones, marking a decisive step away from Moscow’s orbit.
Meanwhile, in Russia, the southern city of Novorossiysk was struck by a magnitude 4.8 earthquake late Monday night, causing panic among residents who initially mistook the tremors for a missile strike. The quake, centred approximately 35 kilometres from the city, caused structural damage to high rise buildings but no official casualties were reported. Further east, in Chechnya, leader Ramzan Kadyrov publicly addressed rumours regarding a traffic accident involving his son, Adam, for the first time in weeks. Speaking in Chechen, Kadyrov dismissed the reports as “online fakes” generated by artificial intelligence, although he offered no proof of his son’s condition. Unofficial sources claim the 18-year-old was involved in a fatal collision on January 16 and was subsequently airlifted to Moscow.
European and British authorities are simultaneously ramping up pressure on Russia’s economic lifelines. The EU is preparing a twentieth sanctions package, expected by February 22, which will for the first time target third-country infrastructure, specifically ports in Georgia and Indonesia that facilitate the transit of Russian oil. Concurrently, the British Royal Navy is establishing a new command centre on the UK’s east coast dedicated to tracking and seizing tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet”. UK Defence Secretary John Healey confirmed the initiative, noting that the millions of pounds (millions of dollars) in costs incurred by detaining these vessels could be recouped by selling the confiscated oil and directing the proceeds to Ukraine.
Domestically, the Russian economy faces deepening instability as food prices have surged to match or exceed those in the European Union, despite significantly lower average incomes. An analysis of Rosstat data indicates that basic staples such as milk, tomatoes, and fruit are now cheaper in Germany and Spain than in Russia, where citizens spend approximately 30 per cent of their income on food compared to 12 to 25 per cent in the EU. This economic strain is compounded by infrastructure failures; in Belgorod, over 100,000 residents were left without power and heating this week. The regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, has faced criticism for utilising the crisis to promote the ruling United Russia party at local warming centres. Furthermore, the Russian government has initiated a “partial restriction” on the Telegram messaging app, leading to widespread service outages and user complaints about media upload failures, a move seen by analysts as a precursor to a total ban.
Political realignments are also visible in Western Europe, where far-right parties are distancing themselves from the Kremlin. Britain’s Reform UK party and France’s National Rally youth wing, led by Jordan Bardella, have recently pivoted to support Ukrainian sovereignty. Bardella has publicly labelled Russia a threat, a move interpreted as an attempt to sanitise his party’s image ahead of elections, shedding the “pro-Putin” label that has become increasingly toxic among the European electorate.
