The Hovering Vultures: A Stern Warning on the Future of South Sudan

By Ajak Deng Chiengkou

During the liberation war, survival was never guaranteed. Yet Dr John Garang de Mabior never stopped speaking to his people, preparing them not only for victory but also for the dangers that would follow. In 2003, at the Upper Nile Congress in Panyagoor, attended by senior SPLM officials, he delivered a six hour address remembered for its candour. I came to know it as “the warning of the hovering vultures.” Each listener took away what they could, but the message was unmistakable.

At that time, peace negotiations were underway. Garang reminded his audience that when the war began in 1983, foreign oil companies such as Chevron and Total already had their eyes on the soil of South Sudan. He warned that those arriving in the name of agriculture, energy, oil, or water were not coming to build South Sudan. They came to extract and profit. They would take raw materials, refine them abroad and sell them back at higher prices. That dependency, he cautioned, would trap South Sudan in lasting weakness.

He explained why he had resisted signing long term deals with multinationals during the war. He had seen what was happening in Congo, where foreign companies turned the nation into a table of exploitation. He pointed to Nigeria, where Shell dominated oil while ordinary Nigerians remained poor. He wanted South Sudanese to understand that the real struggle would begin after peace, the struggle to protect resources from being plundered in the name of development.

Garang described these foreign powers as “hovering vultures.” Just as vultures circle a dying animal, these corporations and their backers circle fragile nations, waiting for weakness. They disguise themselves as partners but come with a single purpose to carve out the richest parts for themselves.

Two decades later, his warning feels prophetic. South Sudan still exports crude oil without a single functioning refinery. We remain dependent on foreign companies that control the flow, the price, and the routes of our oil. The Red Sea and Port Sudan have become hotspots where powerful nations compete for influence, and South Sudan’s reliance on that pipeline makes us easy to pressure. Agriculture projects are presented with foreign interests at the table, yet citizens are rarely told what was promised, who benefits, or whether the future is being mortgaged.

The vultures also strike through legal traps. Consider Vivacell, once pushed out of South Sudan but later empowered to challenge the government through international arbitration. Win or lose, ordinary citizens are the losers. Resources that should fund hospitals, schools, and roads are instead spent fighting endless legal battles abroad.

Garang foresaw this long before independence. He knew vultures would come not only as corporations but also as governments, lobbyists, and compromised politicians. Some would coach and sponsor South Sudanese leaders, grooming them not to serve their people but to serve external masters. Once in office, such leaders would sign away wealth through long leases, fifty years of land, oil, or water, binding future generations to deals they never approved.

The vultures also exploit division. They thrive on tribal politics, regionalism, and rivalry. This is sectarianism with benefits. If Equatoria signs agricultural deals with one power, critics from Bahr el Ghazal are branded jealous. If a leader from Upper Nile challenges exploitation elsewhere, he is dismissed as an outsider. This weakens the nation, opening the door for vultures to feed.

South Sudan is still young but already burdened by unclear debts. Loans are taken in secrecy, with crippling interest rates. Multinationals hold influence in telecommunications, agriculture, and energy with little parliamentary oversight. Citizens are left out, while external actors position themselves for advantage. The vultures are circling ever lower.

The lesson is stark. South Sudanese must not be naïve. We fought for independence because of land, oil, and dignity. To surrender these now is to betray that struggle. Garang’s words in Panyagoor were not theory. They were a roadmap for survival. If people fail to see the vultures for what they are, South Sudan will not need another war to collapse. It will be consumed piece by piece until only the bones remain.

The future can still be different. South Sudan must demand transparency in all agreements. Every loan, concession, and contract should be scrutinised in parliament and explained to the people. Leaders must resist foreign coaching and act for citizens, not outsiders. Above all, South Sudanese must remember that the land and its wealth are not the property of today’s leaders. They are the inheritance of generations yet unborn.

In cattle camps, vultures signal death. In politics, vultures signal exploitation. South Sudan must decide whether to remain vigilant or be consumed. The warning was given. The question is whether we are ready to listen.

NB: This article is a condensed version of a longer reflection. Extended versions are available for readers who wish to explore the full context and detail.

Ajak Deng Chiengkou is a South Sudanese journalist and commentator. He regularly contributes to debates on state building, accountability and the future of South Sudan.