(LVIV) – The expiration of the New START treaty on 5 February 2026 has removed the final remaining legal constraints on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and the Russian Federation. For the first time in decades, no binding mechanisms exist to verify or limit the deployment of strategic warheads, a development that coincides with an intensified propaganda campaign by the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, regarding the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile.
On 9 January 2026, the Russian military conducted a second combat launch of the Oreshnik, targeting the Lviv region in western Ukraine. While Kremlin controlled media described the strike as a breakthrough involving a weapon with no global equivalents, military analysts remain sceptical of its practical utility. Despite claims from the Russian dictator that the missile delivers a kinetic impact comparable to a meteorite and reaches temperatures of approximately 5,500°C, approaching the surface temperature of the sun, physical evidence from the strike sites in Lviv and Dnipro suggests more modest results.
Independent expert assessments indicate that the Oreshnik, likely a modification of the legacy RS-26 Rubezh system, offers little military advantage in a non-nuclear configuration due to its high production costs and questionable accuracy. Satellite imagery following the November 2024 strike on the Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro showed no significant structural destruction, contradicting Kremlin narratives of apocalyptic power.
The expiration of New START has triggered concerns of a renewed arms race. In the United States, preparations to resume nuclear testing are reportedly underway as a symmetrical response to the Russian dictator’s deployment of novel delivery systems. Observers suggest that while these “wonder weapons” fail to alter the frontline reality in Ukraine, they significantly destabilise the global strategic environment by complicating future arms control negotiations.
With the expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026, the last remaining limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals disappeared. For the first time in decades, there are no binding mechanisms to control, verify, or constrain strategic weapons on either side.
Chief among them is the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, repeatedly described by the Kremlin as a breakthrough weapon with “no equivalents in the world.” Russian officials have claimed it delivers kinetic effects comparable to a meteorite impact, with components allegedly heating to temperatures approaching that of the Sun.
This episode of Break the Fake looks at what Oreshnik has actually achieved in practice, how its impact compares to the rhetoric surrounding it, and why weapons marketed as apocalyptic often deliver far more modest results. Join Benjamin Lee in a new episode of Break The Fake to find out more.
