(JUBA) – A new report has raised concern over the declining state of Sudan’s oil and gas sector, warning of long term economic and political risks that could affect the wider East African region, including South Sudan. The “Sudan Oil and Gas Strategic Analysis and Outlook to 2032,” released by OG Analysis, provides a detailed breakdown of Sudan’s current energy production, infrastructure status, and its role as a key oil transit country for South Sudanese crude.
Since the separation of South Sudan in 2011, Sudan has struggled to maintain energy independence. Its oil production has dropped sharply to below 25,000 barrels per day, a steep fall driven by limited oil reserves, lack of foreign investment, and conflict-related disruptions. The country’s upstream oil sector, particularly in fields near the South Sudan border, continues to rely heavily on joint ventures such as the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC).
While upstream production is in decline, Sudan’s midstream infrastructure still plays a vital role in the region. Crude oil from South Sudan continues to flow through Sudanese pipelines to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. These pipelines generate critical transit revenues for Khartoum. However, the country’s role as a transit hub remains fragile due to political unrest and deteriorating infrastructure.
The report highlights that Sudan’s downstream operations have suffered major setbacks, particularly after the destruction of the Al-Jaili refinery, which was one of the country’s main refining facilities. This has triggered widespread fuel shortages, leaving Sudan increasingly dependent on expensive fuel imports. The refinery’s loss, combined with broader civil instability, has discouraged international investors, particularly key players like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Petronas.
Summary of current production and infrastructure challenges outlined in the report
| Segment | Current Status |
|---|---|
| Oil Production | Below 25,000 barrels per day due to poor reserves and investment withdrawal |
| Midstream | Active pipelines transporting South Sudanese oil to Port Sudan |
| Downstream | Al-Jaili refinery destroyed; major fuel shortages and increased import dependency |
| Foreign Investment | Reduced confidence due to civil unrest and infrastructure risks |
The report also points out that Sudan’s energy infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to conflict. Attacks on pipelines and refineries, along with operational delays caused by insecurity, are likely to continue disrupting production. The report’s geopolitical analysis stresses that any instability in Sudan’s oil corridor could have direct implications for South Sudan’s economy, which depends heavily on the ability to export crude through Sudan.
The Sudanese government is currently seeking large scale investment to restore its energy infrastructure. However, analysts warn that without political stability and regional cooperation, the country’s hopes for recovery remain uncertain. For South Sudan, which relies on Sudan’s pipelines to transport nearly all of its oil, any disruption could lead to reduced revenue and further pressure on an already fragile economy.
Strategically, the report offers recommendations for stakeholders, including:
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Prioritising political dialogue between Juba and Khartoum to secure long-term pipeline access
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Urging infrastructure upgrades to reduce risk of sabotage or shutdown
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Supporting regional energy cooperation to stabilise trade flows
In addition to forecasting supply and demand trends through to 2032, the study evaluates project level capacity of key installations, including distillation units, coking plants, and future refinery proposals. It also includes a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis and profiles key industry players.
The report concludes that Sudan’s energy future depends on its ability to overcome political instability, rebuild infrastructure, and rebuild trust with regional and international partners. For South Sudan, continued access to Sudanese pipelines is critical. Any change in this access could result in revenue losses in the range of trillions of South Sudanese Pounds (SSP).
