(CARACAS, VENEZUELA) – The apparent collapse of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power has been described by a former United States diplomat as a major foreign policy failure for Russia, adding to a series of recent setbacks suffered by Moscow and its allies.
Dr Donald Jensen, a former diplomat at the United States Embassy in Moscow and now a professor at Johns Hopkins University, said the situation in Venezuela represents a severe blow to Russia’s global influence. He argued that several states long considered close partners of Moscow, including Syria, Iran and Venezuela, have all faced serious reversals within a short period, weakening Russia’s ability to challenge Western influence.
According to Jensen, these developments amount to a humiliation for Russia’s leadership and a personal failure for the Russian dictator Vladimir, whose foreign policy strategy has relied heavily on supporting allied regimes opposed to the United States and Europe. He said these alliances were not only political but also financial, particularly in the energy sector, and their erosion carries economic consequences for influential business figures close to the Kremlin.
Russia has responded by condemning the actions of the United States in Venezuela. During an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, Russia’s ambassador accused Washington of breaching international law and called for the immediate release of Nicolás Maduro. Moscow argued that any dispute between the United States and Venezuela should be resolved through dialogue, citing the principles of the United Nations Charter.
Maduro has been a longstanding ally of the Kremlin, with Russia’s foreign minister publicly reaffirming support for his government in recent weeks. The crisis in Venezuela comes at a sensitive moment for Moscow, as the United States continues diplomatic efforts related to ending the war in Ukraine. Analysts note that Russia’s ability to respond forcefully is constrained by its military and economic commitments elsewhere.
Jensen said the Russian leadership appears stunned by the rapid deterioration of its position. He noted that beyond Venezuela, Russia has also seen its influence diminish in Syria following the weakening of the Assad government, while Iran has faced increasing pressure both domestically and internationally. Together, these developments have reduced Russia’s leverage on the global stage.
A significant concern for Moscow is the impact on energy related dealings. Russia and Venezuela have maintained substantial cooperation in the oil sector, often structured through complex arrangements that obscure the origin of crude exports. Jensen said these arrangements have benefited powerful figures within Russia’s political and business elite, and their disruption could upset internal balances of power around the Russian dictator.
He added that the loss of Venezuelan oil related revenues may affect key allies within Russia’s ruling circle, forcing the Kremlin to find alternative sources of financial support. This comes at a time when Russia’s economy is already under strain from sanctions and the costs of its war against Ukraine.
The situation also intersects with United States domestic politics. Questions have been raised about how former United States president Donald Trump views recent events, particularly in light of ongoing discussions about Ukraine. Jensen suggested that Washington’s actions in Venezuela may reinforce perceptions that the United States retains significant capacity to influence outcomes when it chooses to act decisively.
Recent comments by Trump regarding an alleged Ukrainian attack near the residence of the Russian dictator have added to the complexity. Trump initially appeared to accept Moscow’s account before later stating that such an attack did not take place, citing updated information. Analysts caution against reading too much into these remarks, noting that political leaders often revise their views as new intelligence emerges.
Jensen argued that the Venezuelan crisis should not be directly compared with the situation in Ukraine, as each case involves different strategic calculations. However, he said the broader pattern is clear: Russia’s ability to project power and protect its allies is increasingly being questioned.
He concluded that the events surrounding Venezuela represent a significant test for Moscow’s foreign policy credibility. Every new setback raises further doubts about the effectiveness of its global strategy and the real extent of its influence as Russia continues its war against Ukraine and faces growing diplomatic isolation.