(LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM) – Russia’s attempt to stall negotiations with the United States in order to extract territorial concessions from Ukraine has failed, according to former United States envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker, who says the strategy has instead strengthened Ukraine’s position and deepened western support.
Speaking on the Frontline programme, Volker said the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had misjudged both Ukraine’s resolve and the political realities facing Kyiv. He noted that the war, which Moscow initially described as a brief military operation, has now continued for more than 1,420 days beyond Russia’s original expectations.
Volker said this alone demonstrates that the conflict is not going Russia’s way and that any assumption of Russian strength at the negotiating table is flawed. He said Moscow’s military campaign has produced limited territorial gains at enormous cost, while Ukraine has become more capable and more deeply integrated with western partners.
According to Volker, negotiations evolved from what the United States believed was a Russian position delivered through intermediaries into a 28 point framework. That proposal was then revised through discussions with Ukraine and European allies into a 20 point plan. He said 18 points are broadly agreed, while two key issues remain unresolved.
Those unresolved issues involve demands that Ukraine abandon the remaining areas of Donetsk under its control and the question of firm security guarantees from the United States and its partners. Volker said claims that talks are 90 percent complete are misleading because Russia itself has not agreed to any binding compromise.
He said the Russian side has told Washington that if Ukraine simply gives up the rest of Donetsk, Moscow would agree to the remaining points. Volker said the United States appears to have accepted this claim, which has led to pressure on Ukraine rather than on Russia.
Volker said assessments from United Kingdom defence intelligence indicate that it would take Russia at least four more years and up to two million additional casualties to capture the remaining territory in Donetsk, if it could achieve this at all. He said he does not believe Russia is capable of doing so.
He added that Ukraine cannot politically accept the surrender of its own territory and that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has no mandate to do so. Volker said there is also no reason to believe that conceding Donetsk would end the war.
According to Volker, even if Ukraine withdrew, the Russian dictator would likely accept the existing points only to introduce new demands. He said Moscow has been consistent throughout the war in seeking control over Ukraine as a whole.
Volker said Russia continues to demand regime change in Kyiv, the demilitarisation of Ukraine, the rejection of European security arrangements, the exclusion of western troops and the rollback of NATO to its pre 1997 posture. He said these demands make any comprehensive settlement impossible at present.
He said the most realistic outcome remains a ceasefire rather than a full peace agreement. According to Volker, such a ceasefire would only occur once Russia experiences sufficient military, economic and financial pressure to accept a pause in fighting.
Volker said warfare remains an extension of diplomacy and that Russia has not yet reached the point where it recognises that continued fighting no longer serves its interests. He added that western reluctance to apply maximum pressure, including during previous United States administrations, has encouraged Moscow to continue.
He noted that early assurances from Washington about what it would not do, including avoiding direct involvement and limiting escalation, shaped Putin’s expectations. Volker said these assurances reduced the perceived risks for Russia.
From a historical perspective, Volker said the war has now lasted longer than the Soviet campaign to push Nazi Germany from Moscow to Berlin. He said this reality carries significant psychological weight for the Russian dictator.
He said Russia has advanced only around 40 kilometres overall while losing territory previously captured, making the campaign one of the worst military failures in Russian history. Volker added that Ukrainians, not Russians, carried much of the burden of defeating Nazi forces during the Second World War, a fact often overlooked.
Turning to United States politics, Volker said American president Donald Trump appears to believe that conflicts can be resolved through simple territorial trades. He said Trump views global politics through a transactional lens and places little weight on the domestic political consequences for leaders asked to give up territory.
Volker said Trump tends to see Putin as a strongman figure with whom deals can be made and has shown a desire to restore business relations with Russia, including lifting sanctions. He said this approach risks misunderstanding Moscow’s intentions.
Volker said pressure on Ukraine to concede land serves Moscow’s interests by creating divisions between Kyiv, Washington and European allies. He said Russia understands that such divisions weaken collective resolve.
On Greenland, Volker said Trump appears genuinely interested in turning Greenland into United States territory, viewing it through a real estate style logic of ownership rather than partnership. He said this view ignores existing agreements that already allow extensive United States military access.
Volker said past United States administrations chose to reduce their presence in the High North, drawing down troops and bases after the Cold War. He said nothing prevents Washington from reversing those decisions without changing sovereignty status for Greenland.
On minerals and rare earths, Volker said access is limited not by politics but by economic reality, as extraction under ice remains prohibitively expensive. He said businesses are unlikely to invest regardless of ownership.
Volker dismissed the idea that pressure on Greenland is a proxy for pressuring Canada, saying Trump has shown no hesitation in confronting Canada directly. He added that Trump does not accept that other powers have formal spheres of influence, even if his actions sometimes benefit Russia and China.
He said both Moscow and Beijing are content to see attention diverted and divisions emerge within NATO. He said this benefits Russia strategically.
On China, Volker said Beijing does not hesitate to pursue its own regional interests and views Russia as a declining power with a shrinking population, weak infrastructure and limited long term prospects.
He said Chinese leaders are aware that parts of Russia’s Far East were historically Chinese territory and that these claims remain part of long term thinking, though China is unlikely to act hastily.
Volker said China thinks in generational terms and sees Russia primarily as a source of cheap resources rather than a strategic equal. He said Russia’s annual gross domestic product of around $2.3 trillion is small by comparison with major economies.
He said Russia’s economic strain is becoming increasingly visible through inflation, high interest rates, depletion of reserves and shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. He said fuel queues and rising prices are now noticed by the Russian public.
Volker said Ukraine has become increasingly effective at targeting refineries, pipelines, storage facilities and ammunition depots. He said this has placed additional pressure on Russia’s ability to sustain the war.
On military innovation, Volker said Russia can scale production but struggles to innovate, while Ukraine has demonstrated strong adaptive capacity supported by western partners.
He highlighted recent European Union approval of €90 billion, about $98 billion, for Ukraine, with €60 billion, around $65 billion, dedicated to military support largely spent inside Ukraine. He said this delivers greater value and supports local production.
Volker said the combined economies of the United States and Europe are around 22 times larger than Russia’s, meaning sustained support could outspend and outlast Moscow if political will remains.
He said the dynamics increasingly resemble those that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union, where economic pressure and innovation proved decisive.
Volker said a ceasefire may eventually be framed by Moscow as a humanitarian gesture rather than an admission of weakness. He said Russia’s leadership will recognise the need for a pause before publicly acknowledging it.
Looking ahead, Volker said Venezuela and Iran are likely to remain under their current regimes, with the United States using limited force and economic pressure rather than pursuing regime change. He said Trump has shown a willingness to use short term military action but not long term occupation.
Volker said this approach has begun to create tension within Trump’s domestic political base, which expected reduced foreign engagement. He said public opinion in the United States does not support aggressive moves on Greenland.
He concluded that while negotiations continue, Russia’s fundamental problem remains unchanged. The war has overextended the Kremlin, strengthened Ukraine’s alliances and exposed the limits of Moscow’s power.
