(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Russia has stopped publishing detailed information on its oil and gas revenues, a move that analysts and observers see as a clear sign of mounting financial stress as the war against Ukraine drags on and international pressure intensifies. The decision comes amid heavy battlefield losses, repeated strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and growing disruption to oil exports through both military action and enforcement measures by Western states.
The development coincides with what Ukrainian officials and independent analysts describe as one of the most costly weeks for Russian forces in recent months. According to figures cited by Ukrainian and independent monitoring groups, Russian casualties including those killed and seriously wounded exceeded 6,000 in a single week, while territorial gains remained minimal. Military analysts note that for most modern armies such losses would be considered catastrophic, underscoring the high human cost Russia continues to pay.
In Kyiv, residents are facing severe winter conditions after Russian missile and drone attacks damaged critical energy infrastructure. Temperatures in parts of the capital, as well as in cities such as Dnipro and Kharkiv, have fallen to between five and eight degrees Celsius inside many apartments, leaving families, including children, struggling without reliable heating or electricity as outdoor temperatures drop to minus 15 to minus 20 degrees Celsius. Ukrainian officials say these attacks are part of a deliberate strategy by Moscow to create a humanitarian crisis and weaken civilian morale.
Ukrainian representatives report that Russian information campaigns have intensified alongside the physical attacks. False claims circulating online and through messaging platforms allege food shortages, gas supply failures and the alleged departure of families of Ukrainian officials from the country. Ukrainian authorities have rejected these claims, stating that food supplies remain adequate and that the primary hardship facing civilians is the lack of heating and power caused by Russian strikes.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian officials say Russian troop morale continues to deteriorate. Reports from the front suggest growing incidents of desertion, internal violence within Russian units and the use of poorly trained recruits, including foreign nationals who were allegedly misled about the nature of their deployment. Ukrainian and independent researchers have documented cases in which individuals recruited from Africa believed they were signing contracts for civilian work, only to find themselves sent to frontline positions.
Military analysts point out that despite frequent claims by Moscow about large scale recruitment, the overall size of Russian forces in Ukraine has remained broadly stable. This, they argue, implies that new recruits are being offset by ongoing losses. Ukrainian sources say discussions within Russia now include the possibility of mobilising up to 500,000 additional people, a move that would require a formal and politically risky mobilisation announcement. Observers note that such a step would also place further strain on Russia’s finances, logistics and domestic stability.
Financial pressure is already evident. Russian soldiers have reportedly been receiving monthly payments of around 200,000 roubles, equivalent to roughly 2,200 US dollars at current exchange rates, alongside one off signing bonuses that in some cases reached 1 to 2 million roubles, or about 11,000 to 22,000 US dollars. Ukrainian officials and analysts say these bonuses are now being reduced or cancelled as state revenues decline, removing one of the main incentives that previously drove recruitment.
Against this backdrop, Russia’s decision to stop reporting oil revenue data has attracted particular attention. Energy exports have long been the backbone of the Russian state budget, funding both social spending and military operations. Analysts say withholding these figures strongly suggests that income from oil and gas has fallen sharply due to sanctions, price caps, transport disruptions and direct Ukrainian strikes on refineries and tankers.
Ukraine has stepped up its campaign against Russia’s so called shadow fleet, targeting tankers used to move oil outside formal sanction regimes. Several vessels have been damaged or disabled in the Black Sea near key ports such as Novorossiysk, while others have reportedly been struck far from the immediate war zone, including in the Caspian Sea. Ukrainian officials argue that these operations are legitimate military actions aimed at cutting off revenue used to fund the invasion.
European enforcement has also begun to tighten. In a notable recent case, a Russian tanker carrying crude oil was denied passage through the Baltic Sea and forced to reroute around northern Norway in mid winter conditions. While the move does not completely halt exports, analysts say it increases costs, delays deliveries and further reduces profit margins for Russian energy sales.
Additional pressure has come from outside Europe. The United States Coast Guard and Navy have reportedly begun boarding and seizing tankers linked to sanctioned trade routes, including vessels operating between Venezuela and Russia. Analysts say this has disrupted arrangements under which Russia processed and resold low grade Venezuelan oil, cutting off another source of income.
The broader economic picture appears increasingly fragile. Independent economists note that when Russian authorities stop publishing specific financial data, it has historically signalled serious problems. Observers liken the current silence on oil revenues to past moments when the state sought to project stability while underlying conditions deteriorated.
Political rhetoric surrounding the war has also drawn criticism. Comments by United States president Donald Trump suggesting that Ukrainian resistance is an obstacle to peace have been met with anger in Kyiv, particularly as they coincided with Russian missile strikes far from the front line, including attacks that hit civilian areas. Ukrainian officials say such statements ignore the reality that Ukraine is defending itself against aggression ordered by the Russian dictator Vladimir in the Kremlin.
International humanitarian organisations have also come under scrutiny. Ukrainian officials have criticised the International Committee of the Red Cross for what they describe as false equivalence between Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian military actions, as well as for failing to press publicly for access to Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia. Similar criticism has been directed at Amnesty International following past reports that were widely condemned in Ukraine.
Despite the hardships, Ukrainian officials stress that resilience alone is not enough. Millions of civilians continue to face power cuts and freezing conditions, while air defence systems remain under strain. Kyiv is urging allies to increase military assistance, tighten sanctions on Russia and apply stronger pressure on European capitals to act more decisively.
Analysts have warned that the cost of deterring Russia over the long term would far exceed the cost of supporting Ukraine effectively now. They argue that continued pressure on Russia’s energy revenues, combined with sustained military aid to Ukraine, remains the most direct path to ending the war and preventing future instability in Europe.
