(LONDON) – The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is facing mounting pressure after more than a decade of conflict has failed to deliver control of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, according to Cormac Smith, a former British diplomat who worked closely with the Ukrainian government.
Speaking on the Front Line programme, Smith said Moscow’s insistence that Ukraine hand over additional territory in Donetsk during peace talks underlined the Kremlin’s inability to seize what he described as a heavily fortified defensive belt. He noted that fighting linked to Russia’s actions began in 2014 and that, despite years of combat and a full scale invasion launched in 2022, Russian forces have not broken through this line.
Smith referred to comments by Finland’s president Alexander Stubb, who recently described the Donbas defensive zone as a gateway to Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine. He said this reality made the issue existential for the Kremlin, as conceding failure in the east would expose the limits of Russian military power.
The discussion took place as the war entered its fifth year, with day 1,428 of what Moscow initially described as a short military operation. Smith said Ukraine was now under severe strain, particularly as repeated Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have left millions of civilians facing freezing conditions during winter.
According to Smith, reports from contacts inside Ukraine describe widespread exhaustion and hardship. He cited accounts of apartments with indoor temperatures as low as six to eight degrees Celsius, forcing many residents to leave Kyiv if they have the means to do so. He warned that continued cold weather combined with sustained strikes on power facilities could have catastrophic consequences.
Smith said the Russian strategy appears aimed at breaking civilian morale by targeting energy systems rather than achieving rapid battlefield gains. While he emphasised the resilience of the Ukrainian population, he said the scale and persistence of the attacks were taking a heavy toll.
He also addressed domestic pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, particularly following corruption scandals linked to the energy sector. Smith argued that, despite public anger, many Ukrainians still see themselves as united in the struggle and recognise efforts by the government to address corruption through reforms and public accountability. He contrasted this with Russia and Belarus, where protests are typically met with violent repression.
Turning to international diplomacy, Smith criticised the limited pressure placed on Moscow by some Western leaders. He said Ukraine has agreed to multiple ceasefire proposals and made significant concessions in negotiations led by the United States and European partners, only for the Kremlin to reject them. He added that public statements by former US president Donald Trump, which have blamed Ukraine for prolonging the war, have been met with anger and disbelief among Ukrainians.
Smith said Ukrainians view Trump with deep scepticism, noting that they have seen little evidence of pressure being applied to Moscow. He said the Russian dictator continues to reject compromise, maintaining objectives that amount to the destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign state and the erasure of Ukrainian national identity.
The former diplomat stressed that Ukraine would not concede further territory in Donetsk, including roughly a quarter of the region still under its control. He said freezing the conflict along current lines without recognising occupation would also be unacceptable, as it would reward aggression without providing lasting security.
Smith also commented on remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov comparing Crimea to Greenland in terms of national security. He dismissed the comparison as misleading, arguing that existing international agreements already allow extensive US military access to Greenland with Danish consent, unlike Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea.
He warned that broader tensions, including rhetoric about Greenland and NATO, risk undermining the international rules based order established after the Second World War. Smith said unity among European and allied leaders was essential to deter both Moscow and any attempts to weaken collective security.
Despite the growing strain, Smith said Ukraine would continue to fight. He recalled a remark by Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany that if Russia stopped fighting there would be no war, but if Ukraine stopped fighting there would be no Ukraine. Smith concluded that a free and democratic Ukraine remains a fundamental threat to the Kremlin’s authoritarian system, making compromise from Moscow unlikely in the near future.
