(MOSCOW / KYIV) – Russia’s ruling regime has intensified its crackdown on dissent while facing mounting economic turmoil and a deepening fiscal crisis. From new laws allowing life imprisonment for children accused of sabotage to the arrest of musicians and social media users, the Kremlin appears increasingly desperate to maintain control.
The shift comes as Ukraine continues its campaign of strikes on Russia’s vital oil infrastructure, inflicting heavy damage on refineries, depots, and pipelines that once financed the war effort. The impact has been severe: government data shows a sharp collapse in oil and gas revenues and a widening federal budget deficit.
Russia’s economy under pressure
Fresh figures from the Russian Central Bank reveal that Moscow’s budget deficit has increased by over 400 per cent compared with last year. Oil and gas revenue, which once made up about 40 per cent of government income, has plummeted as sanctions bite and Ukrainian drone strikes hit production facilities.
| Indicator (2025) | Change (Year-on-Year) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Federal budget deficit | +400% | Driven by war costs and falling energy income |
| Oil and gas tax revenue | -27% | Ukrainian strikes and sanctions reducing output |
| Consumer sector activity | Falling sharply | Weak demand and inflation pressures |
| Defence sector employment | Rising | Main area of job growth |
Analysts say the fall in energy income and rising military expenditure have left the Russian economy in a fragile state. Consumer spending has dropped, while most new employment now exists within the defence sector — a form of production that destroys capital rather than creating it.
Expansion of censorship and arrests
Inside Russia, repression is growing at a pace not seen since Soviet times. The State Duma recently passed a law permitting life sentences for anyone aged 14 or older accused of sabotage. The legislation removes the statute of limitations for such crimes and extends life imprisonment to those accused of encouraging minors to take part in protests or resistance activities.
The law’s vague definition of sabotage has raised fears that it will be used against young people, activists, and even parents of children accused of dissent. Observers describe it as a modern revival of Stalin-era “wreckers” laws, intended to instil fear across society.
In Rostov, two women were fined 5,000 roubles (about US$55) each simply for subscribing to an anti-war Telegram channel, labelled by authorities as an “undesirable organisation.” Police later issued a public warning that even joining opposition channels could lead to punishment.
Artists and musicians targeted
Repression has extended to the arts. Members of the Russian band Stop Time were rearrested immediately after serving short jail terms for performing songs deemed offensive to the state. Their lyrics, which include “Old Man in the Bunker” and “When the Tsar Dies”, have made them targets of repeated police action.
The group’s singer and guitarist now face new charges of organising a public gathering. The case has drawn attention to the increasing criminalisation of artistic expression in Russia, with musicians and cultural figures often accused of “discrediting” the armed forces or spreading anti-state sentiment.
Restricting communication and propaganda control
In Ulyanovsk region, mobile internet access has been suspended after authorities declared it an “extended security zone.” Analysts believe the move is intended to prevent the spread of information following Ukrainian drone attacks and to shield major industrial plants from public scrutiny.
The Kremlin’s dependence on propaganda has also intensified. State media has been instructed to present all developments as part of a “defensive struggle” against the West, while independent outlets face constant blocking or closure.
Ukraine’s strikes and Germany’s new support
Ukraine continues to carry out long-range drone strikes on Russian oil facilities, including a recent attack on the Orsk refinery in the Orenburg region and the Feodosia terminal in occupied Crimea. These strikes have cut deep into Moscow’s war revenues and exposed weaknesses in its air defences.
Meanwhile, Germany has announced plans to increase its support for Ukraine with a new €11.5 billion (US$12.3 billion) package in 2026. The funds will go towards artillery, drones, armoured vehicles, and replenishment of air defence systems such as the Patriot batteries. The decision underscores Berlin’s growing role as a key European supporter of Kyiv amid ongoing political uncertainty in the United States.
Kherson’s liberation remembered
This week also marks the anniversary of the liberation of Kherson, a defining moment in Ukraine’s resistance. For five months under occupation, residents protested unarmed against Russian forces, facing tanks with only flags and chants. Their defiance became a symbol of Ukraine’s determination to remain free.
