(KYIV) – More regions across the Russian Federation are beginning to feel the direct effects of the war with Ukraine, according to analysts and local reports. Border regions were the first to experience the conflict, but developments in drone warfare have allowed Ukrainian strikes to reach far deeper inside Russian territory.
Anonymous polling cited by observers inside Russia suggests that public enthusiasm for what the Kremlin called a special military operation has declined. When the invasion began in 2022, many Russians were told the campaign would be quick and profitable. After more than four years of fighting, the war has produced economic losses, business disruption and increasing insecurity in several regions.
Initially, the war affected regions bordering Ukraine, including Kursk and Belgorod. However, analysts say no region now appears completely insulated from its effects. Ukrainian strikes using drones and missiles have targeted military facilities and infrastructure across different parts of Russia. As these incidents increased, residents in major cities including Moscow and St Petersburg have reportedly grown more negative towards the war.
The shift in sentiment does not necessarily reflect sympathy for Ukraine but concerns that the war may damage Russia itself. Another factor frequently mentioned in local discussions is the possibility of wider military mobilisation. Russia’s federal and regional budgets have faced growing pressure during the war. Observers say some Russians fear the Kremlin may introduce broader conscription if financial incentives for contract soldiers become harder to maintain.
Authorities have also imposed periodic restrictions on communication platforms. Temporary internet shutdowns and limitations on messaging services have been reported in several regions. Analysts believe the Kremlin fears that rising dissatisfaction could lead to protests if information about losses and economic problems spreads more widely.
Border regions such as Belgorod and Kursk have experienced repeated security incidents since the full scale invasion began. As Ukraine improved its military capabilities and expanded its use of drones, military facilities in those regions became frequent targets. Many residents have left affected areas. Reports indicate that displaced residents have received limited support from central authorities.
Local leaders in some regions have publicly asked Moscow for additional air defence systems. The governor of Belgorod has issued several video statements requesting more protection for residents and criticising what he described as insufficient support from the federal government. He argued that the Kremlin appears more focused on continuing attacks on Ukraine than on defending Russian territory.
The war has also highlighted the limits of Russia’s traditional strategic depth. Historically the large size of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union and modern Russia allowed military industries and government infrastructure to be moved further away from front lines. Modern drone warfare has reduced that advantage.
Ukrainian operations have demonstrated the ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. Military analysts say the increasing range of drones and the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence have transformed the battlefield. Some operations have targeted aircraft and military facilities hundreds or even thousands of kilometres from Ukraine.
One operation widely discussed among military analysts reportedly damaged a large portion of Russia’s cruise missile carrier aircraft fleet within a single day. Observers described the event as a significant blow to Russia’s strategic aviation.
These developments have forced Russia to defend a vast number of critical facilities, including oil refineries, weapons factories and logistics centres. Experts note that defending such a large territory requires a large number of air defence systems, which can be difficult to deploy across thousands of kilometres.
Ukrainian attacks have also targeted energy infrastructure. Analysts say strikes on oil and gas facilities have affected Russian production and created pressure on government finances. The federal budget depends heavily on energy revenues, making these facilities important for sustaining the war effort.
Meanwhile several Russian regions have reported financial problems. Some regional administrations describe their budgets as negative, meaning expenses exceed revenues. In some cases, authorities have reportedly reduced payments promised to contract soldiers serving in the military.
Economic pressure has also affected public services. Reports from several regions describe interruptions to utilities, including electricity, heating and gas supply. These issues appear particularly severe in remote northern regions where transportation costs are high and logistics are complex.
Many Russian towns were built during the Soviet era around a single industry or factory. As sectors such as metallurgy and coal mining face economic difficulties, entire regions have struggled to maintain employment and economic stability. Some regional governments have requested financial assistance from Moscow but have received limited support.
Discontent has begun to appear in local political institutions. In some regional councils, deputies have criticised the economic consequences of the war and questioned military failures. Several videos circulated on messaging platforms show local politicians discussing the impact on regional businesses and public finances.
Some deputies have called for the war to end, although observers note their concerns often focus on economic damage rather than humanitarian issues. Public criticism carries risks, as authorities may treat such statements as disloyalty.
Information control has become increasingly strict. Authorities have restricted messaging platforms such as Telegram and imposed internet shutdowns in certain areas. Analysts believe these measures aim to prevent the spread of videos and testimony from Russian soldiers describing conditions on the front lines.
In early March, residents in central and southern districts of Moscow reported a temporary shutdown of mobile internet services lasting nearly two days. Telecommunications operators said the disruption was linked to security measures rather than technical problems.
Observers believe such shutdowns may also test the government’s ability to restrict communications in the event of large scale protests. One issue frequently discussed among Russian citizens is the possibility of general conscription if the army requires additional manpower.
Russia has suffered significant military losses during the war. Analysts say the presence of prisoners recruited into military units and reports of poor conditions on the front lines have discouraged potential volunteers.
As a result, some Russians speculate that the government could impose wider mobilisation. Concerns have also circulated online about potential financial measures such as restrictions on bank deposits if the government requires additional funds.
