(KYIV) – Russian forces continued to conduct thousands of assaults across Ukraine in January, but their territorial gains fell by roughly half compared with the previous month, according to open source battlefield monitoring data.
Figures published by the Deep State monitoring project show Russian troops captured about 245 square kilometres in January, down from roughly 450 square kilometres in December. The number of assault operations fell only marginally.
Analysts said Russian units carried out between 4,000 and 6,000 attacks along the front lines during the month, a level broadly consistent with recent periods. The data suggests a weakening link between the frequency of assaults and territorial progress.
Military observers noted that while monthly Russian gains have fluctuated between 250 and 500 square kilometres, the tempo of attacks in 2025 has remained largely unchanged, indicating declining efficiency.
In Donetsk Oblast, which covers about 25,000 square kilometres, Russia controls roughly two thirds of the territory. At January’s pace, analysts estimate it would take several more years for Russian forces to occupy the remainder, assuming similar conditions.
Ukrainian officials said this helps explain Moscow’s continued calls for Ukraine to concede territory, a demand Kyiv has repeatedly rejected. Ukraine has instead continued constructing layered defensive positions designed to absorb and exhaust repeated assaults.
Independent reporting and interviews with captured Russian soldiers indicate deteriorating morale and harsh frontline conditions. Ukrainian officials said some prisoners described exhaustion, exposure to cold and a lack of confidence in their commanders, expressing relief at being taken into custody.
Ukrainian forces also reported a series of successful strikes on high value Russian military assets, including the destruction of a TOS 1A heavy flamethrower system in Russia’s Belgorod region and the targeting of Russian air defence systems after surveillance identified their positions.
Separately, a Russian military training aircraft crashed near Orsk, killing all three people on board, according to Russian sources.
Russia resumed large scale missile and drone strikes across Ukraine during a period of extreme winter temperatures, hitting residential areas and energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and other regions. Ukrainian officials said the attacks involved more than 70 missiles and approximately 450 drones.
The strikes came despite claims of a temporary halt on attacks against energy infrastructure following discussions involving US president Donald Trump. Ukrainian officials said Russia had again violated any such understanding.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was using the coldest days of winter to terrorise civilians rather than pursue diplomacy and called for accelerated delivery of air defence systems. He said without sustained pressure on Moscow, the war would not end.
Images released by Ukrainian authorities showed civilians sheltering in metro stations and emergency workers operating under continued threat. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv during the period to inspect damaged energy facilities.
Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that most Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions, expect the war to continue beyond 2025, and believe Russia’s strikes on energy infrastructure are intended to force capitulation. A majority said they support strikes on Russian military infrastructure.
Ukraine also announced new measures governing the use of Starlink satellite terminals, introducing restrictions intended to prevent their use on fast moving platforms such as drones. SpaceX said it worked with Ukrainian authorities to address the issue. Russian state media figures criticised the move and called for retaliation.
Sweden and Denmark announced a joint purchase of air defence systems designed to counter drones, to be supplied to Ukraine.
Separately, newly released documents related to Jeffrey Epstein prompted renewed scrutiny of alleged links between Epstein and Russia. Media reports cited FBI records describing Epstein as a wealth manager connected to Russian interests and suggesting meetings with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
The documents also prompted investigations in several countries, including Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk said authorities would examine possible links involving Polish nationals. US authorities said they had concluded their review of the case.
The material renewed debate in the United States over the handling of the Epstein case and allegations concerning political and financial figures mentioned in released records. US president Donald Trump has denied wrongdoing.
Ukrainian officials said the wider context of the revelations reinforced concerns about Russian influence operations and the use of kompromat as a tool of state power.
Ukraine said it would continue defending its territory while pressing allies to maintain military, political and economic pressure on Moscow.
