(ABU DHABI) – Ukrainian forces remain better supplied and more resilient than Russian troops as Moscow presses renewed diplomatic efforts while continuing to demand territory it has failed to seize on the battlefield, analysts say.
Speaking on the Frontline programme, former US Naval Intelligence officer and geopolitical analyst Malcolm Nance said Russian troops were suffering severe winter conditions, with reports of soldiers dying from exposure due to poor logistics and inadequate shelter.
He said Ukrainian forces, by contrast, maintain stronger resupply lines, defensive positions and morale, even as Russia continues nightly drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities targeting power infrastructure.
Trilateral discussions involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States took place over the weekend in Abu Dhabi, though long standing disagreements remain unresolved. Moscow continues to demand full control of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, most of Zaporizhzhia, parts of Kherson region and Crimea.
Nance said Russia views the talks as its best opportunity to secure through diplomacy what it failed to obtain through military force, believing that pressure from US President Donald Trump could push Ukraine into territorial concessions.
“They believe they have an ally in Trump who will give them land they could not take despite enormous losses,” he said.
The Ukrainian delegation includes National Security and Defence Council head Rustem Umerov and presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, the former head of military intelligence. Russia is represented by senior officials including GRU director Igor Kostyukov.
According to Nance, the prominence of intelligence figures reflects Moscow’s attempt to frame negotiations as a strategic exchange while continuing battlefield pressure.
Ukraine has stated it is willing to discuss security guarantees but insists that any agreement must respect its sovereignty and be subject to a national referendum. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly ruled out ceding territory.
Meanwhile, Russia continues nightly strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, worsening conditions during one of the harshest winters in recent years. Temperatures have fallen below minus 15 degrees Celsius in parts of the country, leaving many homes without heating or water.
Despite the hardships, Ukrainian forces remain operational and adaptive, employing advanced drone warfare and modern defensive tactics. Nance described Ukraine’s military as among the most experienced and innovative forces currently operating.
He said Russia continues to rely on mass infantry assaults, resulting in heavy casualties, while Ukraine focuses on precision strikes and technological adaptation.
Nance also drew parallels between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent rhetoric from Trump regarding Greenland, warning that aggressive territorial ambitions undermine global security and destabilise alliances.
He said European and Danish military deployments in Greenland have acted as a deterrent, amid concerns sparked by Trump’s remarks about annexation.
Despite ongoing diplomatic manoeuvres, analysts say Russia’s position remains weakened by battlefield losses, logistical failures and declining morale.
