(UKRAINE) – Ukraine has entered 2026 with its front lines largely intact, despite sustained pressure from Russian forces and continued attempts by Moscow to claim territorial progress. While global attention has recently focused on political developments in other regions, fighting in eastern Ukraine has remained intense, with no decisive breakthroughs by Russia.
Russian military priorities continue to centre on the Kramatorsk and Sloviansk area, a key Ukrainian defensive hub. Russian forces have attempted to approach the area from multiple directions, including the north and east, but these efforts have faced strong resistance. The terrain, Ukrainian fortifications, and sustained counter operations have made the area one of the most difficult targets for Russian troops since the start of the war.
Beyond this objective, Russia has yet to fully conclude operations around Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Lyman. Efforts in these sectors have been slow and costly. At times, Russian command has diverted forces southwards following limited local successes, a move that Ukrainian forces have sought to exploit by stretching Russian logistics and manpower in less favourable areas.
Ukraine’s strategy entering 2026 remains focused on attrition while preparing for planned military reforms expected later in the year. Until these reforms are implemented, Ukrainian forces continue to trade territory sparingly for time and the depletion of Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stressed that time is not on Russia’s side, particularly as diplomatic off ramps proposed by European and American partners remain unaccepted by the Russian dictator.
The situation around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad remains difficult but stable. Ukrainian forces have confirmed the liberation of areas north of Myrnohrad, including Rodynske, and report active operations within the city. Ukrainian presence around Pokrovsk has also been demonstrated through continued operations from northern sectors of the city, despite Russian claims to the contrary.
Further south east, Russian forces have identified Kostiantynivka as a major objective for 2026. Attempts to approach the city from the east are ongoing, but plans to partially encircle it from the north and south have been hindered. The town of Chasiv Yar continues to block northern advances, while Ukrainian units north of Myrnohrad, including formations with Azov involvement, have successfully slowed Russian movement.
In the Siversk direction, Russia has sought to capture elevated terrain that would offer tactical advantages. Ukrainian counter attacks have disrupted these efforts, forcing prolonged fighting for high ground. Open terrain has proven particularly dangerous for Russian units due to the density and effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations.
Elsewhere, Russian advances towards Lyman have been minimal. Attempts to approach the city from multiple directions have been repeatedly undermined by Ukrainian counter attacks. Fighting around Yampil alone reportedly took Russian forces more than four months to achieve limited progress. In the Kupiansk sector, Ukrainian forces have recaptured significant territory, encircling and reducing isolated Russian pockets. Remaining Russian units in the area are being gradually cleared, with reports suggesting limited reinforcement and logistical support.
Overall, Ukraine begins 2026 in a relatively stable position given the imbalance in resources. Russian forces continue to advance in some areas, but without encirclements or strategic breakthroughs. An overview of 2025 highlights the limited scale of Russian gains and the high cost at which they were achieved.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has increasingly appeared at defence meetings, adopting a more overt wartime posture. These appearances have been marked by repeated propaganda claims, including assertions of permanent control over settlements that Russian forces do not fully hold. This rhetoric contrasts sharply with realities on the battlefield and raises questions about Moscow’s internal assessment of the war.
According to available estimates, Russia captured approximately 4,300 square kilometres in 2025, representing less than one percent of Ukraine’s territory. Most of these gains involved small settlements rather than major urban centres. Large cities such as Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kharkiv remain firmly outside Russian control, with no clear operational plan for their capture.
Russian tactics shifted during 2025 as armoured losses mounted. Large mechanised assaults were increasingly replaced by small infantry groups attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. While initially effective, these tactics have become far more costly as Ukrainian surveillance and drone coverage improved. Once detected, such units face rapid and often fatal engagement, sharply increasing Russian fatality rates.
Russian losses have risen significantly, with conservative estimates indicating more than 20 Russian soldiers killed for every square kilometre captured. This has contributed to growing recruitment challenges, particularly outside poorer regions of Russia. Wealthier urban centres such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg have shown limited willingness to supply manpower for the war.
Economic pressures are also intensifying. The cost of sustained high intensity warfare continues to drain Russian financial reserves, including the national wealth fund. While Russia retains the ability to continue fighting in the near term, these pressures are narrowing its capacity to escalate or sustain operations indefinitely.
Overview of 2025 fighting
| Indicator | Estimated Outcome |
|---|---|
| Territory captured by Russia | ~4,300 sq km |
| Share of Ukrainian territory | < 1 percent |
| Russian fatalities per sq km | 20 or more |
| Major cities captured | None |
Despite disparities on paper, Ukraine has demonstrated resilience through adaptation, external support, and effective battlefield management.
