(WASHINGTON) – Internal divisions within the United States administration have slowed Russia’s efforts to force Ukraine into accepting unfavourable terms, creating space for Europe to strengthen military and financial support that could ultimately undermine the Russian dictator’s invasion, according to geopolitical analyst Diane Francis.
Speaking on Times Radio’s Frontline programme, Francis said Ukraine has made significant progress over the past year despite continued fighting. She noted that Ukraine has stabilised its front lines and expanded domestic production of drones and missiles, with European financing playing a critical role. As a result, Ukraine is now able to sustain its defence effort while preventing Russian forces from achieving decisive gains.
Francis described the current battlefield situation as a stalemate, but stressed that Russia is not winning and lacks the capacity to secure victory. She said European governments are increasingly coordinated, pointing to leadership from Germany’s new chancellor, the head of Europe’s largest economy, alongside France, the United Kingdom, the Baltic states and Poland. These countries, she argued, are pushing the wider continent towards more robust support for Ukraine.
Diplomatic activity has intensified across several capitals, including Washington and Berlin, focusing on possible frameworks to end the war. These discussions have centred on financing Ukraine, providing credible security guarantees, managing relations with NATO, and addressing Russia’s claims over eastern Ukrainian territory. Francis said progress has been made on security guarantees and funding, with European states considering ways to use frozen Russian assets or replace them with their own financial contributions.
She said proposals were presented to Moscow in stages, placing responsibility on the Russian side to respond. On December 17, however, the Russian dictator rejected all elements of the proposals. According to Francis, Moscow made clear it would not abandon its claims over Ukrainian territory and warned that using frozen Russian assets would be treated as an act of war. This response effectively returned the initiative to Ukraine’s allies.
Francis described the Russian reaction as unusually defiant, noting hostile language directed at European leaders. She said the Russian dictator believes he still holds leverage and sees no reason to compromise, despite failing to secure victory on the battlefield. This belief, she argued, remains a major obstacle to any negotiated settlement.
Asked about US domestic politics, Francis said competing factions within Washington are influencing policy. She identified an isolationist camp associated with Senator JD Vance, which is sceptical of supporting Ukraine, a more traditional diplomatic camp represented by Senator Marco Rubio, and a business focused group urging closer economic engagement with Russia. These internal disagreements, she said, have slowed decision making and complicated negotiations.
Francis was critical of former president Donald Trump’s approach, arguing that he views the conflict primarily through a commercial lens rather than one of security and values. She said Russia has sought to exploit this by presenting potential business opportunities, diverting attention from the ongoing war. This, she argued, has delayed efforts to apply meaningful pressure on Moscow.
She also warned that weak or unclear security guarantees could have wider consequences. Referring to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Francis said Ukraine learned that political assurances without enforcement mechanisms offer little protection. She said Ukraine is now seeking stronger guarantees involving European forces on the ground and continued US intelligence and surveillance support.
Francis cautioned that failure to provide credible protection could encourage other countries to pursue nuclear weapons as a means of self defence. She said states in Asia, the Middle East and beyond are closely watching how Ukraine is treated and will draw conclusions about the reliability of international commitments.
Despite concerns, Francis said there are positive signs. She pointed to a recent US Senate decision to block major troop reductions in Europe as evidence that institutional checks remain in place. She also noted that Europe’s combined economy rivals that of the United States and now exceeds China’s, giving it the capacity to sustain long term support for Ukraine if political will holds.
She concluded that the past year has shown Ukraine’s resilience and Europe’s growing leadership. While the war remains unresolved, Francis said the balance has shifted away from Russia’s expectations of a quick or easy outcome, leaving Ukraine better positioned than many anticipated at the start of the conflict.
