(BRUSSELS, BELGIUM) – Europe will face far higher long term economic and security costs if Russia achieves a partial victory in Ukraine, according to a recent Norwegian study reported by the Kyiv Post. The research examined how much Europe would spend under two outcomes of the war: a partial Russian victory or a partial Ukrainian victory.
The study assessed political, defence, economic and humanitarian impacts. It assumed that the United States would sharply reduce support for both Ukraine and European defence, leaving Europe with most of the financial responsibilities.
Researchers concluded that Europe needs Ukraine to successfully resist Russia. If Russian forces neutralise Ukraine politically and militarily, the European Union and NATO would be required to spend significantly more to strengthen their eastern defences and prepare for future threats.
Senior European defence officials have warned that Russia could rebuild its capacity and threaten NATO countries, including the Baltic States, within the next few years. This would require major new defence spending and urgent preparations.
Large numbers of Ukrainians could also flee to Europe if their country faces political collapse. The study estimates between six and eleven million people may leave, creating extra pressure on national budgets and social support systems.
A partial Russian victory scenario would create the greatest financial cost:
| Estimated EU Costs (4 years) | Euros (€) | US Dollars (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Refugee support | up to €1.1 trillion | up to $1.26 trillion |
| Defence of eastern flank and Arctic security | €256 billion | $297 billion |
| Total additional spending | €1.3 to €1.7 trillion | $1.4 to $1.8 trillion |
In contrast, a partial Ukrainian victory scenario where Kyiv halts further Russian advances and strengthens its air defences would reduce pressure on European borders. Fewer refugees would need to relocate permanently, and many who already left could return home.
| Estimated EU Costs (4 years) | Euros (€) | US Dollars (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Support to strengthen Ukraine’s defence | €838 billion | $972 billion |
| Total additional spending | €838 billion | $972 billion |
In this second scenario, Europe would help Ukraine obtain drones, armoured equipment and air defence systems required to resist further attacks. The researchers expect that these improvements could make Russia reassess its actions and encourage negotiations.
The study also notes that frozen Russian state assets held in Europe could help pay for Ukraine’s defence and recovery. More than €185 billion (about $214 billion) is currently held by Euroclear, with further assets frozen elsewhere on the continent.
European leaders have expressed concerns that peace negotiations led mainly by the United States could result in territorial concessions that benefit Russia. Ukrainian officials have objected to proposals that would allow Moscow to retain occupied areas in the east of the country.
The European Parliament recently passed a resolution calling for Europe to take a more active leadership role in efforts to end the conflict. Members of Parliament warned that depending on Washington’s shifting priorities may place Europe’s long term security at risk.
Analysts quoted in European and American media criticised parts of the early US peace proposals as showing a misunderstanding of the strategic dangers. There are concerns that the current US administration may underestimate the consequences of any settlement that weakens Ukraine.
The Norwegian study argues that although both outcomes require large sums of money, the costs of a Russian advance would be significantly higher. It also states that instability caused by Russian expansion could threaten global security.
Researchers conclude that Europe should continue and increase support for Ukraine while strengthening its own influence in future peace negotiations. They warn that delaying these decisions will only increase the risks and financial burdens facing the continent.
