Kyiv Intensifies Maritime and Energy Strikes as US Security Shift Deepens European Unease
(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine is escalating its maritime campaign beyond the Black Sea and maintaining sustained drone attacks on Russian energy and military infrastructure, even as a highly scrutinised new United States National Security Strategy (NSS) signals a sceptical shift in US foreign policy towards European allies and a favourable view toward autocratic regimes, including Russia. The Russian dictatorship is celebrating what it perceives as a significant diplomatic and geopolitical victory resulting from this strategic pivot by a prominent political figure in the US.
Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers is beginning to collapse as Ukraine expands its naval drone strikes, transforming the Black Sea into a high risk zone for Russian crude and refined product shipping. Reports suggest Ukraine may now be targeting Russia’s global export routes, citing incidents as far afield as off the coast of Senegal. Ukraine has explicitly claimed responsibility for at least two Black Sea strikes, making it clear that all shadow fleet tankers are now considered legitimate targets.
However, an incident involving a third ship off Senegal and a fourth ship in the Black Sea, identified as a Russian sunflower oil vessel, were not claimed by Ukraine. The latter ship, damaged near the port city of Novorossiysk, was likely struck by debris from a Russian air defense missile that missed its target. The Russian dictatorship then reportedly sailed the damaged ship into Turkish waters, attempting to falsely accuse Ukraine of attacking an agricultural vessel, a claim Kyiv denies, noting that it employs naval drones, not aerial drones, for maritime strikes.
A temporary pause in attacks on new shadow fleet tankers may be an intentional strategy by Ukraine. Approximately half of the fleet’s 500 vessels are not owned outright by Russia but are leased from foreign companies. Ukraine may be allowing time for these international entities to terminate contracts or remove their crews. This uncertainty is increasing the complexity and cost of insurance for Russia. If insurers withdraw coverage and foreign vessel owners decline to lease ships into the war zone, Russia could lose access to a large portion of the tankers it uses to transport sanctioned oil. The pause may also be due to diplomatic pressure from Turkey.
The challenges in the maritime domain for the Russian dictatorship are compounded by Ukraine’s domestically produced drones and missiles, which continue to strike strategic targets nightly. Recent attacks have targeted a gas terminal in Krasnodar, igniting a massive fireball. Multiple Ukrainian drones also successfully struck the Samara oil refinery, a key Rosneft facility located deep inside Russia, which had been previously targeted in August but was seemingly back online after repairs.
Furthermore, Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery, Russia’s third largest with an annual production capacity of 17 million tons of refined products, was hit again in the ninth such strike this year. This highlights Ukraine’s determined strategy to systematically degrade Russia’s energy infrastructure, which requires repeated strikes to ensure facilities are knocked permanently offline. Satellite imagery confirmed significant damage at the Afipsky oil refinery following a strike weeks prior, indicating the tangible success of these drone operations.
Collectively, Ukrainian defense forces have struck over 50 strategic Russian facilities in a 60 day period between September and November. This sustained campaign is a primary factor in Russia’s oil and gas revenues dropping by 35% year over year, a decline that cannot be solely attributed to lower global oil prices. This gradual wearing down of the energy sector is viewed by many analysts as a slow but deliberate collapse of the entire system, one that Kyiv must sustain until the Russian dictatorship halts its invasion.
Concurrently, the economic strain on the Russian dictatorship is visible domestically. Russian regional authorities, or oblasts, are struggling to pay death benefits to the families of soldiers killed in the war, with many running out of funds months ago. The number of reports of missing or dead persons has increased dramatically, with thousands of families seeking compensation, many of whom are denied or ignored. In an apparent attempt to raise revenue, the government, through a decree by the Russian dictator, is increasing the excise tax on alcohol, causing the retail price to rise between 9% and 31% starting January 1st, including a potential 30% hike for vodka.
Ukraine has also maintained its focus on high value military assets, particularly in occupied Crimea. Recent attacks include an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strike on a Russian Su-24 bomber on the tarmac, reportedly destroying the $20 million (USD) aircraft. Furthermore, Kyiv’s intelligence units, including the ‘Ghosts,’ have claimed the destruction of eight Russian targets in the past two weeks, focusing heavily on aircraft, radar systems, and logistical infrastructure. Another strike successfully destroyed a Russian Buk M3 air defense system in Zaporizhzhia region.
In a highly symbolic attack, a Ukrainian drone crashed into a high rise commercial building in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, near the Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters, which may have been the intended target before the drone was possibly diverted by Russian electronic warfare. The building, featured on the Russian 500 rouble banknote, represents a significant embarrassment to the Russian state. This attack coincided with the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, appearing visibly unwell, leading to speculation about instability in the region, though the fact that 80% of Chechnya’s regional budget comes directly from the Kremlin suggests continued financial loyalty.
Russia, meanwhile, continues its nightly terror campaign against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, exemplified by a massive recent strike wave involving over 700 missiles and drones, of which air defenses shot down 615. The remaining nearly 90 munitions successfully struck targets, including a warehouse in Dnipro holding essential medical supplies such as gauze and antibiotics, which analysts interpret as a deliberate attempt to kill sick and wounded people. Russia also struck the Fastiv Railway Station near Kyiv, a civilian commuter route, though services continued to run despite the damage.
Further infrastructure attacks include a strike on the Pechenihy Dam in the Kharkiv region, forcing its closure. While both sides have targeted dams, Russia’s consistent strikes on dams and electrical generation facilities aim to cripple Ukraine’s civilian and energy sector. Disturbingly, a United Nations agency reported damage to the protective sarcophagus shield at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, caused by a Russian Shahed drone strike in April. This damage has compromised the shield’s ability to contain radioactive material from the 1986 disaster, which has been labelled as an act of nuclear terrorism.
Amidst the ongoing fighting, high profile envoys connected to the US administration have engaged in meetings with Ukrainian and Russian officials. These talks, involving individuals such as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reportedly focused on a peace plan that the Russian side immediately dismissed, insisting instead on business opportunities and the return of their frozen assets. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister expressed distrust for “empty pledges” and characterised the negotiations as a political “propaganda game” intended to provide justification for a potential future cut off of US intelligence and weapon sales.
Concerns are rising that the US administration is attempting to undercut the European Union’s plan to use interest generated from €300 billion ($322 billion USD) of frozen Russian assets in European banks to fund a reparations loan for Ukraine. These actions are viewed by critics as a “naked cash grab,” with the Russians and the Trump administration sharing a desire to recover the frozen money for personal and political gain, a situation described as pervasive corruption. European leaders have reportedly assured Ukraine’s government that they, not the United States, will ultimately determine the fate of these assets.
This strategic divergence is reflected in military aid trends. US aid to Ukraine has significantly diminished since the beginning of 2024, shifting the bulk of support to Europe. Historically, a large portion of US aid money remained in the US to purchase new weapons for American forces, with older systems then transferred to Ukraine. However, Europe is now increasingly providing direct financial assistance to Kyiv, enabling Ukraine to invest in and build its own domestic defense industry, resulting in a more cost effective and impactful allocation of support.
This geopolitical backdrop is reinforced by the publication of the controversial new US National Security Strategy (NSS) under the sceptical US political figure. The document has caused alarm among US allies and veterans for its stated criticism of Europe and its clause on containing NATO expansion, signalling a dangerous reversal of decades of US defense policy. Notably, the document refers to the conflict simply as the “Ukraine war,” omitting any reference to Russian aggression. Analysts point out that the document mentions Russia only ten times, a stark deviation from every NSS since 1993, which suggests the paper was heavily influenced by pro Kremlin interests.
