( MINSK, BELARUS ) – Belarus has released 123 political prisoners, marking the country’s largest mass pardon in recent years. The list includes prominent opposition figures such as Maria Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. The move comes amid claims of seeking to normalise relations with the United States and lift sanctions, but analysts say it is a strategic decision by the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko rather than a gesture of genuine political reform.
The release is seen as a carefully calculated political move linking sanctions, US diplomacy, and the country’s dependence on Russia. While the freed prisoners expressed relief at regaining their freedom, they have continued to stress the importance of maintaining pressure on the Belarusian regime and reaffirmed their commitment to political activism.
Observers note that not all political prisoners were released. Figures such as Andrzej Poczobut remain detained, highlighting that the Belarusian dictator continues to use selective pardons as bargaining chips in negotiations with both Western powers and Moscow.
The deal included the easing of some US sanctions on Belarusian potash exports, which are now allowed access to the US market. Analysts suggest this is expected to provide a modest boost to the Belarusian economy while leaving the country’s dependence on Russia largely intact. EU sanctions, including restrictions through Lithuanian ports, remain in force.
Economic and geopolitical experts caution that Belarus’s trade rerouting via Russian ports since 2020 means the country remains structurally tied to Moscow. The release of prisoners and the partial lifting of sanctions are seen as steps to strengthen Lukashenko’s political legitimacy and improve Western engagement, rather than as moves towards free elections or an end to repression.
Dmitry Bolkunets, co-founder of the Democratic Forces of Belarus, said the deal could pave the way for future releases and renewed engagement with the United States, which had minimal diplomatic relations with Belarus for nearly two decades. He also highlighted that the Belarusian dictator’s eventual departure is inevitable, making it crucial for Belarus to establish economic independence from Russia.
The move is also seen as part of Washington’s broader strategy to test whether selective engagement can create some strategic distance between Belarus and Moscow. Meanwhile, the Kremlin closely monitors the situation, ready to use its influence over Minsk to maintain its regional leverage.
In addition to the political releases, analysts warn that Belarus continues to use selective pardons and repression as tools to maintain control, isolate political opponents, and manage international perceptions, demonstrating that the country remains firmly locked in a survivalist political system rather than one open to genuine reform.
