(LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM) – The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has little interest in a peace settlement with Ukraine because ending the war now would represent failure after heavy military and economic losses, according to former British Army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
Speaking on the radio programme Frontline on Times Radio, de Bretton Gordon said any agreement at this stage would bring “no victory” for the Kremlin, given the scale of casualties and the strain placed on Russia’s economy.
He said that despite public statements from senior Russian officials, Moscow sees negotiations as “no way out” and remains committed to continuing the conflict.
De Bretton Gordon noted that reports from the front line remain contradictory, with some suggesting that Ukrainian forces are consolidating positions and regaining territory, while others claim that Russian troops are pushing back advances.
He referred to reports that Ukrainian units had advanced up to 18 kilometres in parts of the Zaporizhzhia region, alongside claims that Russian forces were assembling troops for a spring and summer offensive.
He said the situation reflected information warfare, psychological operations, and deliberate confusion, making it difficult to assess conditions on the ground with certainty.
According to de Bretton Gordon, Russian commanders have at times exaggerated their successes in briefings, only to later adjust their accounts when battlefield realities become clear.
He said that around key areas, including sectors where Russian forces have invested significant manpower over the past year, progress has been measured in metres rather than kilometres.
On an extended front line of roughly 800 miles, he said, small territorial changes have come at the cost of thousands of casualties, drawing comparisons with battles such as Passchendaele and Verdun during the First World War.
He added that although both sides manage information carefully, Russian propaganda and disinformation remain central features of Moscow’s strategy.
De Bretton Gordon said Ukrainian intelligence services appear to have gained an advantage over their Russian counterparts, contributing to effective counter operations.
He said that overall movement along the front has been limited, while casualties, mainly among Russian forces, continue to rise.
Ukrainian officials have previously claimed that Russian losses significantly exceed Ukrainian casualties, though these figures cannot be independently verified.
The discussion also addressed Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, hospitals, and medical centres.
De Bretton Gordon said such tactics mirror those used by Russian forces in Syria, where he supported medical operations between 2012 and 2020.
He described repeated attacks on hospitals and healthcare workers, saying that medical facilities were often struck shortly after their coordinates were shared with international organisations.
He said more than 1,000 medical personnel were killed in Syria during the conflict, forcing hospitals to relocate frequently to avoid being targeted.
He added that similar patterns are now evident in Ukraine, with international organisations reporting thousands of attacks on medical facilities since the start of the invasion.
According to recent assessments cited in the programme, Russia has struck medical sites more than 2,500 times during the war, killing hundreds of healthcare workers and damaging facilities used by children.
De Bretton Gordon said such actions violate international humanitarian law and undermine morale among both civilians and soldiers.
He said attacks on power infrastructure have also left large parts of Kyiv and other cities without reliable electricity and heating during winter, increasing pressure on the civilian population.
He argued that the strategy is intended to weaken public resilience by targeting essential services.
Drawing on his experience in Syria, he said Russian and allied forces previously believed that sustained attacks on civilians would eventually force surrender, as occurred in Aleppo in 2016.
He noted that in later years, Russian backed forces and the government of Bashar al-Assad suffered major setbacks, offering a potential warning for Moscow.
Looking ahead, de Bretton Gordon said international discussions at the Munich Security Conference could play a significant role in shaping Western responses.
He said European NATO members, in particular, must demonstrate unity and increase support for Ukraine as the war enters its fifth year.
He noted that Donald Trump was absent from the meeting, while Marco Rubio and other officials were expected to attend.
He said strong and consistent messaging from Western leaders could influence Moscow’s calculations.
De Bretton Gordon said that while Western officials have expressed cautious optimism, sustained political and military commitment remains essential.
He said a future settlement would need to be acceptable to Ukraine and might involve freezing the current contact line.
However, he added that Moscow must be made to understand that it is unlikely to gain further territory through continued fighting.
He said European countries are increasing defence spending and strengthening cooperation, particularly in northern and Baltic states.
He concluded that Russia is unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough towards Kyiv and that unity among European allies will be critical in pushing the Kremlin towards meaningful negotiations.
