(LONDON) – Russian forces in Ukraine are suffering what analysts describe as severe and unsustainable losses, raising the risk of political pressure and public unrest inside Russia, according to a former British Army officer.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a retired colonel and defence analyst, said the scale of casualties faced by Moscow could become a decisive factor in the conflict, particularly if the Kremlin is forced to expand conscription to major cities.
Speaking in an interview with former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram, de Bretton-Gordon said Russia was struggling to replace soldiers lost on the front line, despite its willingness to tolerate exceptionally high casualty rates.
“There comes a point where the numbers simply do not add up,” he said. “This could be the final straw that breaks the Russian system.”
He argued that the war, now in its fourth year, has entered a phase of attrition in which territorial changes are limited, while human losses continue to rise.
According to Ukrainian and Western assessments, Russian casualties, including those killed and wounded, may have exceeded 1.25 million. These figures have been cited by Ukraine’s defence authorities and supported in part by British and United States officials.
De Bretton-Gordon said Russia was losing an estimated 35,000 troops a month, or close to 400,000 a year, while its traditional conscription system could supply only about 250,000 new soldiers annually.
“This creates a serious imbalance,” he said. “They are losing more people than they can replace.”
He added that most casualties have so far come from poorer and more remote regions in eastern Russia, limiting public reaction in major cities. However, he said recruitment pools in those areas were shrinking.
As a result, the Kremlin has increasingly relied on what he described as “mobilisation by stealth”, including the call up of reservists who were originally assigned to protect domestic infrastructure.
These reservists, he said, are now being sent directly to frontline combat units, often with limited training.
The Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, has so far avoided a full national mobilisation, which analysts believe could provoke unrest in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
De Bretton-Gordon recalled that a partial mobilisation announced in 2022 led to public protests and a wave of Russians leaving the country.
“If he has to mobilise in the big cities, it will be a sign that he is losing,” he said.
He compared the situation to the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, where far smaller casualty numbers eventually triggered widespread dissatisfaction and contributed to Moscow’s withdrawal.
The analyst said Russia was also facing shortages of modern military equipment and trained instructors, limiting its ability to field effective armoured and combined arms units.
As a result, he said, Russian commanders were increasingly relying on lightly equipped infantry, motorcycles and improvised assaults, tactics that have led to heavy losses.
“They are trading equipment for human lives,” he said.
Training standards have also declined, with some recruits reportedly receiving only weeks of preparation before deployment.
“In Western armies, combined arms training takes months,” he said. “Without instructors, that system collapses.”
The interview also addressed concerns that international attention on Ukraine has diminished as other global crises dominate headlines.
De Bretton-Gordon said that coverage by outlets such as the BBC had reduced in prominence, reflecting public fatigue and competing priorities.
He said economic pressures, political scandals and tensions in the Middle East had diverted focus from Ukraine, despite the continuing strategic importance of the war.
“It is crucial that this conflict remains on the agenda,” he said. “What happens in Ukraine matters directly to the United Kingdom.”
Citing reporting in the Financial Times, he noted that casualty data indicated a growing strain on Russian manpower and morale.
The discussion also addressed attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including power stations and medical facilities.
De Bretton-Gordon said Russia had systematically targeted hospitals and health workers, echoing tactics used in Syria during operations that supported the government of Bashar al-Assad.
He referred to reports by international organisations indicating that thousands of medical facilities had been damaged or destroyed since the start of the war.
“These attacks are designed to break civilian morale,” he said.
He added that Ukraine had lost more than half of its electricity generating capacity during the winter, leaving millions without reliable heating and power.
“This is a direct assault on civilians,” he said.
The analyst argued that such tactics were intended to pressure Ukraine into concessions by increasing suffering among the population.
Turning to diplomacy, de Bretton-Gordon said the coming months would be critical, particularly as Western leaders seek to maintain unity.
He said the role of the United States would be central, but warned that US president Donald Trump could push for a rapid settlement that might disadvantage Ukraine.
He also noted comments by French President Emmanuel Macron regarding the need for stronger European leadership, and the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at recent security meetings.
De Bretton-Gordon said European members of NATO must demonstrate long term commitment to Ukraine if they wish to deter further Russian aggression.
He expressed cautious optimism that increased defence spending and closer cooperation among European states could strengthen Ukraine’s position.
Looking ahead to 2026, he said a sustainable peace would depend on guarantees acceptable to Kyiv and recognition that territorial conquest through force could not be rewarded.
“Russia has probably gained all the territory it is going to get,” he said. “The question is how quickly Moscow accepts that reality.”
He concluded that Russia’s high casualty rates, weakening training systems and economic pressures were steadily eroding its ability to continue the war.
“If Western resolve holds,” he said, “this strategy of attrition will ultimately fail.”
