(CARACAS, VENEZUELA) – Venezuela’s long standing Russian backed government collapsed overnight following a swift United States military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power, marking a significant geopolitical shift in Latin America and raising fresh questions about Russia’s ability to protect its allies abroad.
United States forces reportedly neutralised several Russian supplied air defence systems during the operation, encountering limited resistance. The ease with which these systems were disabled has drawn attention in Moscow and among international defence analysts, particularly as the equipment had been marketed globally as combat tested. Russian military exports, already under scrutiny because of performance issues in Ukraine, now face renewed credibility concerns.
Venezuela has for years been a key partner for Moscow in the Western Hemisphere. The relationship deepened after Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999, steering the country away from the United States and Europe and towards Russia, China and Iran. Under Chávez and later Maduro, Venezuela increasingly relied on political, financial and security backing from Moscow, while its domestic institutions weakened under corruption, economic mismanagement and international sanctions.
The fall of the Maduro government has immediate implications for the global oil market. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but production has fallen sharply over the past two decades. Output declined from an estimated 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to a fraction of that level, largely because of under investment, loss of technical capacity, and widespread diversion of revenues.
Venezuela Oil Production Trend
| Period | Estimated Production (barrels per day) |
|---|---|
| Late 1990s | 3,500,000 |
| Mid 2010s | 2,000,000 |
| Early 2020s | Below 1,000,000 |
Analysts note that United States sanctions had effectively capped Venezuelan exports in recent years. With the regime change, restrictions may be reviewed, potentially allowing more oil to reach global markets. This could limit upward pressure on crude prices in the near term, particularly if production stabilises with foreign technical support.
The collapse of the Caracas government also highlights the scale of Russian involvement in Venezuela. Between 2005 and 2008, Venezuela purchased an estimated USD 4 billion worth of Russian military equipment, largely financed through oil backed arrangements. In 2009, Moscow extended an additional loan of approximately USD 2.2 billion. At current exchange levels, USD 1 equals roughly 36 Venezuelan bolívars, meaning the combined military and loan packages exceeded 220 billion bolívars at historical rates, although Venezuela’s currency has since undergone repeated redenominations.
Beyond arms sales, Russia’s influence extended into Venezuela’s financial system. Venezuelan gold reserves were transferred abroad, state oil company operations were shifted closer to Moscow, and Russian banks played a growing role in managing energy revenues. These steps reinforced perceptions that Venezuela had become dependent on Moscow for regime survival.
Events in Venezuela are unfolding alongside mounting pressure on other Russian aligned governments. Protests continue across multiple cities in Iran, another strategic partner of Moscow, while Russia remains heavily engaged in its war against Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have warned of a possible large scale Russian strike in the coming days, a move analysts interpret as an attempt by the Russian dictator to project strength amid setbacks elsewhere.
The Russian foreign ministry has condemned the United States action in Venezuela, describing it as an act of aggression. The statement has been met with scepticism in Western capitals, given Russia’s own record of military interventions and its ongoing assault on Ukraine.
For Washington, the operation marks a decisive intervention in a region where Russian influence had expanded during the past two decades. For Moscow, the loss of Venezuela represents another weakening of its informal network of partner regimes. With political change accelerating in several countries once considered securely aligned with Russia, analysts increasingly question how durable Moscow’s global reach remains under the combined pressure of war, sanctions and domestic unrest among its allies.