(KUPIANSK, KHARKIV) – The Kremlin’s strategic objectives for the new year, including the capture of major Ukrainian urban centres and a renewed push into northern territories, have been characterised as a pipe dream by military analysts following the collapse of Russian efforts in Kupiansk.
Foreign policy analyst Jimmy Rushton suggests that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is operating under a series of military delusions, particularly regarding the city of Zaporizhzhia. While Russian forces have made minor inroads within the Zaporizhzhia region, the prospect of seizing the provincial capital itself remains a logistical and military impossibility.
The city is a sprawling urban hub straddling the Dnipro River, and any attempt to occupy it would require a scale of manpower that the Kremlin currently lacks. Furthermore, such an operation would result in astronomical casualties for the invading forces and likely leave the city in total ruin, stripped of any economic value for generations.
Current Russian military focus remains concentrated on the Donetsk region, rendering threats against other major cities largely performative. However, analysts note that these stated goals reveal the broader intent of the Russian dictator to dismantle Ukrainian sovereignty entirely. The Kremlin’s ambition extends beyond the Donbas to the total subjugation of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, with the ultimate aim of reducing Ukraine to a compliant puppet state similar to Belarus. This strategy seeks to strip Kyiv of its ability to determine its own foreign and internal policies, placing the nation under the direct control of the Kremlin.
Recent orders from Moscow to advance into northern Ukraine, specifically targeting the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, have been met with skepticism. Similar attempts in 2024 saw Russian forces penetrate only 10 to 20 kilometres beyond the border before being repelled by Ukrainian defenders. These incursions achieved little beyond the destruction of small border towns like Vovchansk and the sacrifice of tens of thousands of Russian lives. From a strategic perspective, opening these secondary fronts has been viewed as a mistake, as it diverts vital Russian resources away from more critical sectors in the east.
While the Russian dictator struggles to secure territorial gains, Ukraine has increasingly brought the conflict to the Russian heartland. Since the start of 2026, Ukrainian long range drones have targeted Moscow and critical energy infrastructure on a near daily basis. Despite beginning the war with no domestic drone programme, Ukrainian engineers have developed a sophisticated capability that now launches hundreds of aircraft per night. These strikes have caused significant blackouts in the Russian capital, challenging the domestic narrative of Russian military invincibility.