Kyiv Sees Kremlin Cracks As War Enters Harsh Phase
(KYIV) – The full scale invasion of Ukraine is closer to its conclusion than at its onset in 2022 yet has entered a brutal new phase defined by intensified assaults on civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian analysts and officials suggest that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is utilising negotiation narratives merely as a stalling tactic while his own country faces mounting internal instability.
Journalist and observer Anna Danylchuk reports that while Kyiv endures nightly attacks on power and heating grids the resilience of the population remains unbroken. The prevailing sentiment in the capital indicates that any form of appeasement toward the Kremlin is futile. There is a consensus among Ukrainian leadership that the only viable path to peace involves the demilitarisation of the Russian Federation rather than concessions.
Moscow continues to demand recognition of territories it does not militarily control. This diplomatic posturing is viewed in Kyiv as an element of hybrid warfare intended to destabilise Ukraine politically. The Kremlin reportedly hopes that dragging out the conflict will prevent further sanctions from the United States and global partners. However, economic indicators from within Russia suggest that time is not on Moscow’s side.
Reports from Russian regions highlight severe budgetary deficits and social unrest. Inflation is eroding the high wages previously offered to attract contract soldiers. Analysts predict that by 2026 the Russian dictator will face a critical dilemma regarding general conscription. This is a measure he has historically avoided due to the lack of funds to pay soldiers and the risk of triggering another mass exodus similar to 2022.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently disclosed that Moscow would need to sacrifice approximately 800,000 personnel and spend two years to capture the remainder of the Donbas region. He stated that the Russian Federation will not last that long. This assessment contradicts Kremlin propaganda regarding limitless resources. Danylchuk notes that the first frontline to collapse will likely be the Russian economy. This is evidenced by protests from transport workers and a deepening fuel crisis within the oil rich nation.
The expiration of the New START nuclear non proliferation treaty on 5 February 2026 presents further complications for the Russian dictator. While the formal end of the treaty theoretically allows for unchecked nuclear expansion experts believe Moscow lacks the financial and technological capacity for a new arms race against the United States and China. The nuclear blackmail frequently employed by Kremlin officials is increasingly interpreted by Western allies as a sign of conventional weakness rather than strength.
The maintenance of Russia’s nuclear arsenal has reportedly suffered since 2014 when Ukrainian specialists ceased servicing the systems. There is speculation that the strategic missile forces may be in a state of disrepair similar to the sanctions hit Russian aviation sector. As the war grinds on the consensus in Kyiv is that the Russian dictator is now fighting against the clock with his economic and military leverage rapidly diminishing.